Transcript
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Welcome to something more with Chris Boyd.
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Chris Boyd is a certified financial planner, practitioner,
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and senior vice president, financial advisor at Wealth
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Enhancement Group, one of the nation's largest registered
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investment advisors.
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We call it something more because we'd like
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to talk not only about those important dollar
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and cents issues, but also the quality of
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life issues that make the money matters matter.
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Here he is your fulfillment facilitator, your partner
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in prosperity, advising clients on Cape Cod and
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across the country.
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Here's your host, Jay Christopher Boyd.
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Thanks for being with us for an episode
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of something more with Chris Boyd.
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I'm here with Jeff Perry and Russ Ball,
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both from our team, the AMR team at
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Wealth Enhancement Group.
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And today we're talking a little bit about
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what the new administration taking office momentarily.
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We're, we're talking about what some of the
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Trump anticipated or discussed topics when it comes
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to taxes, tariffs, immigration policy, and so on
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and so forth.
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We're going to talk a little bit about
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that.
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And I get this asked a lot from
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clients and who come in to the office
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inquiring, what's your take?
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You know, how should we be thinking about
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some of these issues when it comes to
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the markets and you know, just positioning of
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portfolios and so forth.
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So I thought that would be a fun
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topic for us to talk about before we
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got even started, Jeff's got me all riled
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up, ready to jump on all these topics
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and get fired up for our conversation.
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I think you were riled up before we
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started talking out there.
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I think you came in, I think you
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came in this morning, ready, looking for a
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fight, quite frankly.
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Loaded for bear, huh?
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Is that what it is?
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All right.
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I don't know, but it's passion.
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That's what it is.
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So let me start off with a few
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things and then we'll dive in.
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Okay.
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So, you know, I think big picture I've
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been, when I've asked, been asked this, I've
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been saying that, you know, overall right now,
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the economy is pretty good.
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Yeah.
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You know, general, general strength.
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Um, when we think about, uh, the, uh,
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uh, new administration, the expectation is that tax,
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lower tax rates that we have under the
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tax cut and jobs act, which has a
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lower rate of tax for corporations and, uh,
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it's a lower income tax rates, uh, that
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take longer to get into the next rate.
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So, and a higher standard deduction.
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So generally, I know this isn't always the
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way people talk about it, but in most
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instances, people pay less tax income taxation, um,
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across the board.
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So, um, that would be beneficial in that
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consumers keep more money to spend and, uh,
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corporate, uh, or, you know, earnings there's less
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taxation.
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Therefore, there's more going into either the, the
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shareholders get more of a profit or they're
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going back into research and development or whatever,
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maybe.
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So that that's generally on the plus side.
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I think additionally, uh, you'd argue from a
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business point of view, from a profitability point
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of view, the expectation of a less burdensome
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regulatory policy, uh, we can debate whether that's
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good long-term policy or not, but from
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a profitability point of view, you'd expect that
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to be on the plus side for, uh,
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markets and for shareholders, for businesses to do
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well when it comes to, um, on the
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other side of the, you'd expect the possibility
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of tariffs being, and I only want to
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talk about this in a little more detail
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in just a minute, but you'd expect that
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to be on the negative side.
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Cause that's an added cost.
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It's a drain, uh, on the economy.
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Then you'd have, uh, the question of, uh,
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deportation.
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Uh, you know, there's been a strong, uh,
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argument for stronger order control.
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I think also, I don't think there's a
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lot of people opposed to that personally, but,
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um, the issue then becomes, uh, what do
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you do with the people who are here
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illegally?
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Uh, I expect there'll be some sort of
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a big show of some deportation, but I
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think that the idea of mass deportation becomes
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really impractical and challenging.
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So it's, again, there's all these things that
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were, uh, markets, I think are making assumptions,
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how much is rhetoric, how much is positioning
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and what's actually going to be implemented is
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to be determined, right, to be seen.
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But in the meantime, generally, uh, I think
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the market expects that there's some of these
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things, but not everything that's been talked about,
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uh, in, on the campaign trail.
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And so I think the market seems to
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be responding, saying all the good stuff mostly,
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and not, not so much about the worry
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stuff.
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Uh, so in any case, uh, that's sort
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of where I've been trying to set up
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the positioning of when talking with clients about
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here, here's what it looks like, but we
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have to be watchful of what happens and
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how this will affect the economy.
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Let's start with the topic of tariffs, because
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we were talking a little bit about that
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before the show started.
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And I think it's really important that we
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understand essentially how a tariff works.
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So, uh, essentially my understanding is if a,
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uh, tariff is applied to, let's say China,
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we're going to apply, uh, you know, 10
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to 60% on the goods from China.
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Well, the president's, the president Trump has been
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very clear on that, that where the starting
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point with China is 10%.
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So these are, this is what's been threatened,
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I think through the campaign rhetoric, right?
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Right, right.
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And he, you know, last week he kind
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of doubled down on that.
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Let's just assume some element of tariff goes
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up on Chinese goods, right?
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Yep.
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Now, um, that means that the importer, the
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company trying to import those goods has to
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pay more for those goods.
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That means the U S consumer who's going
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to buy those goods from that importer, whether
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it's because that then it turns into a
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product or because it is the product either
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way, right?
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Somehow that cost gets passed on to the
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U S consumer.
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That's a tax.
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That's an tax increase.
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It's not necessarily called a tax increase, but
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it's effectively a tax increase.
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Now, the reason for it is to try
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to dissuade the buyer from using that product
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that is made in this particular instance, China.
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So to find alternative, uh, sources of products,
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right?
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Um, now, but ultimately let's not, let's be
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clear.
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It's not China who pays that tariff.
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It's the U S importer or the U
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S consumer that pays for that tax, that
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costs that disincentive.
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Um, so that means there's less generally Jeff.
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I know you're not a fan of taxes,
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right?
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More taxes generally thinks it's a slowing economic
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impact, not generally a favorable, uh, position to
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have.
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So, I mean, that being said, we do
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have a pretty big deficit.
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So maybe there's some favorability.
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The reality though, just as an aside is,
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um, we've seen this in the past.
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This is not a new playbook.
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What happens when one country increases tariffs on
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another country?
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The other country says, well, I'm not going
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to take that.
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I'm raising tariffs on you on something else.
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So if you're going to try to import
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here, we're going to have some, uh, in
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cost on you, or as we saw, we're
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going to boycott some of your product, uh,
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when it came to farmers or something like,
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you know, different, uh, goods of one type
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or another resource resources that we export.
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So, um, it's not without consequence and it
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has, uh, generally an effect where, uh, it's
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inflationary costs.
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Just go up, um, on both sides of
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the, the trade arrangement.
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So in any case, and that affects, yeah,
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you know, that's one of the things that,
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uh, the Trump administration in the past has
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been kind of obsessed about is the idea
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of our, uh, trade imbalance.
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Well, this doesn't help a trade imbalance.
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If you start, um, it can, it can
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help.
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It can create a disincentive for people to
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import our goods.
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So we have less exports going out.
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And I guess that's a, you know, it's
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an individual question country by country.
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And, you know, I hope that president Trump
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treats it as an individual question.
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You know, you can make this, you can
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make the arguments that there's other reasons besides
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tax income.
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And that's the, that's the reason for tariffs.
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You alluded to that, Chris, it's a, it's
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an income generating thing, right?
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Revenue in for the government, right?
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That's right.
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It also, if there's an unfair trade, not
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just balance, not just looking at, you know,
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imports versus exports, but import, uh, prices and
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export prices, but looking at fair trade or
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whether or not there's, um, criminal activity or
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improper activity going on between the partners, so
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it can be, it can be, uh, can
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be punitive, can be sending a message.
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Like if you're going to, if you're going
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to steal our trade secrets, if you're going
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to have slave labor, if you're going to
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have this and that totally agree with your
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point, um, that doesn't seem to be the
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case when we talk about China and Mexico
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and, you know, essentially all of these other
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places that tariffs have been threatened as well.
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I don't, I don't know if I a
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hundred percent agree with that.
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He, it, I think it may be implied
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because those countries both have things that are
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not doing, you know, different things that those
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countries are not doing that the United States
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want them to do, but you know, we
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could debate that and whether or not it's
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in the motive of the president and his
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administration to be part of that.
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I can see, I'm not clear.
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I'd be curious in the case of Canada,
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for example, what are you writing?
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I didn't put Canada in there.
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I said, China and Mexico.
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Okay.
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I Canada and Mexico.
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I meant to say when I said, uh,
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you know, Canada is another one where we've
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had this threat.
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I think we're trying to make Canada the
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51st state or something.
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I'm not sure what's going on up there.
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But for, for, for Mexico and China, I
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think there's reasons to put pressure on their
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countries to get them to do things that
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we want them to do.
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And it's also a way aside from taxes
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and aside from political pressure, it's also a
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way to protect protectionism, which is certainly a
270
00:11:15,870 --> 00:11:18,310
word that can be used under the, um,
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Trump doctrine.
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If you want to say that, um, to
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protect certain American businesses from unfair trade practices,
274
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um, across the globe, if you will, but
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China and Mexico and to protect American companies
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who are competing in those sectors.
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So I think there's a lot of things
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other than just, you know, the simple way
279
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to look at why we're doing tariffs to
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punish our enemies, if you will.
281
00:11:44,330 --> 00:11:46,470
I think there's other economic reasons to do
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them.
283
00:11:46,790 --> 00:11:49,090
And I just hope it's not broad based.
284
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The thing I liked least about some of
285
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the president, president Trump's proposals, um, was tariffs.
286
00:11:56,950 --> 00:11:58,070
I'm not in favor of tariffs.
287
00:11:58,130 --> 00:12:00,230
Generally, I think they have a place, but
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I certainly don't think they have a uniform
289
00:12:02,190 --> 00:12:05,710
place to say 25% for a whole,
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everything coming in from a country.
291
00:12:07,590 --> 00:12:09,910
I think if they're targeted, if they have
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a clear economic and political message, then they
293
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can be effective.
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Yeah.
295
00:12:15,050 --> 00:12:16,290
And I think, you know, we've seen this
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whole question of, uh, technology, um, you know,
297
00:12:20,390 --> 00:12:24,590
the essentially, uh, whether things are being treated,
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uh, properly and fairly with the, uh, essentially
299
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stealing technological, uh, thought we thought, you know,
300
00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:42,040
uh, trades, whatever it is that, that, that
301
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seems reasonable to me to say, Hey, wait
302
00:12:44,680 --> 00:12:45,020
a second.
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00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:47,460
Um, I mean, that kind of leads us
304
00:12:47,460 --> 00:12:49,140
to, uh, one of the other things you,
305
00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:50,860
you had brought up Jeff before we got
306
00:12:50,860 --> 00:12:52,900
started was the whole tick tock topic.
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All right.
308
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:55,320
That's, that's, that's one of those going to
309
00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:57,660
be the, uh, hot news right after the
310
00:12:57,660 --> 00:12:58,720
inauguration here.
311
00:12:59,140 --> 00:13:01,320
Um, as we know, when we're recording this,
312
00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,680
the Supreme court is, has a case before
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them, there have an appeal from tick tock
314
00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:09,940
to stay the, the elimination basically of tick
315
00:13:09,940 --> 00:13:10,200
tock.
316
00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:12,640
Congress passed a law, president Biden signed the
317
00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:14,660
law, which would ban tick tock from the
318
00:13:14,660 --> 00:13:15,300
United States.
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00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,340
The Supreme court could put that law on
320
00:13:18,340 --> 00:13:21,560
a pause, you know, paste facing further review.
321
00:13:21,700 --> 00:13:23,100
Um, they may or they may not.
322
00:13:23,380 --> 00:13:25,380
And if they don't, by the time the
323
00:13:25,380 --> 00:13:28,620
president takes the oath of office, tick tock
324
00:13:28,620 --> 00:13:31,140
in essence will be gone from the United
325
00:13:31,140 --> 00:13:34,080
States, unless they make some deal with there's
326
00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:35,940
been rumors of deals, you know, part of
327
00:13:35,940 --> 00:13:39,860
the, um, legislation was that tick tock could
328
00:13:39,860 --> 00:13:42,440
divest himself of Chinese interest and sell it
329
00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:43,520
to an American entity.
330
00:13:44,100 --> 00:13:45,720
And tick tock could survive.
331
00:13:46,060 --> 00:13:47,840
So at the time of the recording here,
332
00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:50,900
there's no deal sealed, but that could happen
333
00:13:50,900 --> 00:13:51,400
as well.
334
00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:54,540
Um, and then there's some rest.
335
00:13:54,620 --> 00:13:56,300
We were talking about before the show, there's
336
00:13:56,300 --> 00:13:58,860
some kind of political news about tick tock
337
00:13:58,860 --> 00:14:00,600
as well about who might be sitting behind
338
00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:01,080
the president.
339
00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:01,380
Right.
340
00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:02,860
Yeah.
341
00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,900
So the, uh, CEO of tick tock is,
342
00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,760
uh, in front of Congress and all these
343
00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:10,580
hearings, uh, over the past couple of years,
344
00:14:10,580 --> 00:14:12,480
um, is going to be joining for the
345
00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,020
inauguration and sitting in a, in a seat
346
00:14:15,020 --> 00:14:17,980
of honor, uh, behind, uh, the incoming president.
347
00:14:18,060 --> 00:14:20,640
So, uh, a little bit of, uh, interesting
348
00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:21,500
dynamics there.
349
00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:22,260
Yeah.
350
00:14:22,540 --> 00:14:22,920
Okay.
351
00:14:22,980 --> 00:14:25,020
And it feels like it's a political message,
352
00:14:25,020 --> 00:14:25,320
right?
353
00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:27,880
I mean, president Trump's been saying that he's,
354
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,660
he, he, he, and in essence asked the
355
00:14:30,660 --> 00:14:32,560
Supreme court to stay the decision so he
356
00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,400
could try to make a deal, right, instead
357
00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,280
of tick tock being banned, which is kind
358
00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:39,260
of a change in his position from what
359
00:14:39,260 --> 00:14:40,760
a couple of years ago, he had a
360
00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:42,540
lot of a very different kind of rhetoric
361
00:14:42,540 --> 00:14:44,260
around this, he did.
362
00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:46,880
And I think that his, uh, his, his
363
00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:48,600
win, he, you know, he said tick tock
364
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:51,180
was, was useful in the campaign process.
365
00:14:51,340 --> 00:14:53,160
And I think he, uh, it kind of
366
00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:55,440
changed his tune around, uh, tick tock.
367
00:14:55,500 --> 00:14:59,080
It's really put, uh, Republicans in a odd
368
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:01,800
spot because most Republicans, I don't know if
369
00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,360
it was all, but most Republican legislators, it
370
00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:04,900
was not all.
371
00:15:04,980 --> 00:15:06,820
There were a few that voted against the
372
00:15:06,820 --> 00:15:09,540
bill, but most Republican senators and reps voted
373
00:15:09,540 --> 00:15:10,920
to ban tick tock.
374
00:15:11,750 --> 00:15:13,920
So now they're having to answer that question
375
00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,400
of what do you think about president's Trump's
376
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:17,300
change of opinion?
377
00:15:19,180 --> 00:15:21,840
Um, just as an aside, uh, what, where
378
00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:23,180
do you, what are your thoughts around this,
379
00:15:23,340 --> 00:15:26,380
uh, this notion of that, uh, this creates
380
00:15:26,380 --> 00:15:29,560
the potential for some threat to the U
381
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,880
S um, national security.
382
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,900
I thought the bill was fairly balanced, balanced
383
00:15:36,900 --> 00:15:41,620
national security, uh, interest, uh, concerns about issues
384
00:15:41,620 --> 00:15:45,020
with, uh, personal information and certain content getting
385
00:15:45,020 --> 00:15:46,080
to children.
386
00:15:46,300 --> 00:15:49,080
Um, but it didn't, uh, it didn't say
387
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:50,880
this has to be banned.
388
00:15:50,900 --> 00:15:53,120
It sets some reasonable conditions to address those
389
00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:54,300
specific concerns.
390
00:15:54,940 --> 00:15:57,180
And the Supreme court basically agreed with that
391
00:15:57,180 --> 00:15:59,940
part of that the bill was, was constitutional.
392
00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,360
So I thought it was a balanced bill.
393
00:16:02,740 --> 00:16:05,740
And the most plausible is to, uh, have
394
00:16:05,740 --> 00:16:06,260
it sold.
395
00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:06,640
Right.
396
00:16:07,020 --> 00:16:07,760
That's right.
397
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:13,140
Um, the concern is that the current arrangement
398
00:16:13,140 --> 00:16:16,220
has ties to the Chinese government and that
399
00:16:16,220 --> 00:16:19,520
could, that could be used in an adversarial
400
00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:19,820
way.
401
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:20,480
That's right.
402
00:16:21,060 --> 00:16:22,420
And I think that's legitimate.
403
00:16:22,660 --> 00:16:25,040
I think as the world turns more and
404
00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:28,760
more to everything being online and the use
405
00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:32,260
of AI and the way, you know, communication
406
00:16:32,260 --> 00:16:35,560
and false communication and manipulative communication has been
407
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,960
in existence between adversaries from planes dropping leaflets,
408
00:16:39,580 --> 00:16:41,940
you know, till now it's all in our
409
00:16:41,940 --> 00:16:44,880
television and such and radio, right?
410
00:16:44,980 --> 00:16:45,580
That's right, Chris.
411
00:16:46,620 --> 00:16:48,400
So we do have to be aware of
412
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:49,880
it and we do have to be vigilant
413
00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:55,120
to protect our military and social and I
414
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:56,740
mean, I think it's going to create a
415
00:16:56,740 --> 00:16:58,340
little bit of an uproar if they actually
416
00:16:58,340 --> 00:16:59,340
have to close it down.
417
00:16:59,460 --> 00:17:01,100
I think they're trying to, I think that's
418
00:17:01,100 --> 00:17:04,280
the position that seems to be put forth
419
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:05,579
right now is we're not going to sell,
420
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:07,180
therefore they're going to create a lot of
421
00:17:07,180 --> 00:17:12,319
angst among American users of TikTok with the
422
00:17:12,319 --> 00:17:14,560
frustration of that and then, so there'd be
423
00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:18,319
some kind of backlash and the expectation that
424
00:17:18,319 --> 00:17:22,700
it would therefore be reversed, but, and I
425
00:17:22,700 --> 00:17:22,920
don't know.
426
00:17:23,020 --> 00:17:25,740
President Trump cannot reverse it, no, it's law,
427
00:17:25,859 --> 00:17:28,320
so it would take an additional act from
428
00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:32,440
Congress and that would mean something that legislators
429
00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:34,300
do not like to do is to change
430
00:17:34,300 --> 00:17:34,820
their vote.
431
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:36,060
Yeah, reverse themselves.
432
00:17:36,060 --> 00:17:38,820
In the matter of a year, it would
433
00:17:38,820 --> 00:17:40,360
be less than a year that they'd be
434
00:17:40,360 --> 00:17:42,720
saying, oops, I changed my mind.
435
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:44,260
So, well, you know, the way it would
436
00:17:44,260 --> 00:17:45,880
happen is it gets slid in with something
437
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:46,600
else, right?
438
00:17:47,500 --> 00:17:49,560
It could, but I think, I think I
439
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,220
really liked this one, but I just had
440
00:17:51,220 --> 00:17:54,200
to go along with it, you know, I
441
00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:56,620
guess, I guess, I mean, honestly, I hope
442
00:17:56,620 --> 00:17:59,080
it's, it's like, they take the position of
443
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:00,760
like, these are your options.
444
00:18:00,940 --> 00:18:02,160
You know, A or B, what do you
445
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:02,500
want to do?
446
00:18:02,500 --> 00:18:04,560
If I was a member of Congress or
447
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:08,360
the Senate, I would not change my vote.
448
00:18:08,460 --> 00:18:09,860
If I was that convinced that it was
449
00:18:09,860 --> 00:18:11,480
a national security threat, I think it would
450
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,160
be very hypocritical to say now it's not,
451
00:18:14,500 --> 00:18:16,240
unless, unless they came up with some new
452
00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,320
arrangement on how the data is stored and
453
00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:19,660
such, you know.
454
00:18:19,860 --> 00:18:21,600
All right, let's, let's move on from TikTok,
455
00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,520
although it's an interesting topic, let's, let's talk
456
00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:26,640
more about what are some of the things
457
00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:31,000
that are anticipated under the Trump administration that
458
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,640
people think could move markets or have economic
459
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,160
impact that ultimately would have some consequence.
460
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,100
So we talked briefly about tariffs, the idea
461
00:18:41,100 --> 00:18:44,320
that, I mean, I put this in the
462
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:45,560
negative column, personally.
463
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,900
I understand your point, Jeff, that sometimes there's
464
00:18:48,900 --> 00:18:50,000
like targeted reasons.
465
00:18:50,360 --> 00:18:52,680
It could definitely be a negative.
466
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,960
It's just broad-based, you know, punitive and
467
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,240
no real, no real logic.
468
00:18:59,260 --> 00:19:00,220
It's inflationary, I think.
469
00:19:00,300 --> 00:19:02,600
And I think it's likely to be retaliated
470
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:04,440
and therefore, you know, you get into this,
471
00:19:04,660 --> 00:19:08,780
like, everyone gets wet, you know what I
472
00:19:08,780 --> 00:19:08,940
mean?
473
00:19:08,980 --> 00:19:11,480
It's not, not a great outcome.
474
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,480
Or it could be a great tool to
475
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:17,460
get our adversaries or countries that we want
476
00:19:17,460 --> 00:19:19,480
to do things to be more cooperative in
477
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,520
doing the things that protect America.
478
00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:22,300
Yeah.
479
00:19:22,360 --> 00:19:24,620
And I suppose if you're using it for
480
00:19:24,620 --> 00:19:29,680
not just purely in this realm of tariff
481
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:34,380
thought process, but other kinds of national security
482
00:19:34,380 --> 00:19:37,240
or, you know, leverage for one thing or
483
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,120
another, you know, there could be some virtue
484
00:19:39,120 --> 00:19:42,140
in that, how it applies.
485
00:19:42,260 --> 00:19:44,240
It does seem right now that, you know,
486
00:19:44,260 --> 00:19:46,760
when it comes to China, they're in an
487
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:51,760
economic less leverage and, you know, coming from
488
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:53,500
less from a position of strength than they
489
00:19:53,500 --> 00:19:54,540
might have at other times.
490
00:19:54,780 --> 00:19:55,700
China is, yeah.
491
00:19:55,980 --> 00:19:56,080
China.
492
00:19:56,300 --> 00:19:56,480
Yeah.
493
00:19:56,540 --> 00:19:58,840
So, so you do probably have the opportunity
494
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:00,940
to use something like this for leverage and
495
00:20:00,940 --> 00:20:04,680
other elements of your negotiations, perhaps.
496
00:20:05,120 --> 00:20:05,260
Yeah.
497
00:20:05,660 --> 00:20:07,780
So and with Trump, maybe that's the game
498
00:20:07,780 --> 00:20:08,060
plan.
499
00:20:08,120 --> 00:20:10,380
You know, he's all about the negotiations.
500
00:20:10,740 --> 00:20:11,160
Part of the deal.
501
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:11,960
Part of the deal.
502
00:20:12,100 --> 00:20:15,320
So, well, let's see what happens with tariffs.
503
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,500
How much is rhetoric and how much is
504
00:20:17,500 --> 00:20:20,160
actually going to be implemented?
505
00:20:20,420 --> 00:20:22,780
I think that's rubber meets the road question.
506
00:20:22,980 --> 00:20:24,560
You know, how's this really play out?
507
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:26,480
And those are within his discretion.
508
00:20:26,860 --> 00:20:28,140
You know, most some of the things that
509
00:20:28,140 --> 00:20:30,700
we're talking about, TikTok and taxes, maybe we'll
510
00:20:30,700 --> 00:20:33,680
move on to taxes, but that those items
511
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,780
and most items, quite frankly, take the act
512
00:20:35,780 --> 00:20:36,400
of Congress.
513
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:37,620
Yeah, it's a good point.
514
00:20:37,860 --> 00:20:38,980
The tariffs do not.
515
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:42,260
It's it's within the purview of the executive
516
00:20:42,260 --> 00:20:42,800
branch.
517
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:43,800
Mm hmm.
518
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,740
And President Biden continued, you know, just yeah,
519
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,280
I know we're trying to get away from
520
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,220
tariffs, but he can some of these tariffs
521
00:20:50,220 --> 00:20:51,520
are in existence today.
522
00:20:53,020 --> 00:20:57,420
So, yeah, I mean, President Trump implemented tariffs
523
00:20:57,420 --> 00:20:58,320
on China originally.
524
00:20:58,520 --> 00:20:58,660
Right.
525
00:20:59,300 --> 00:21:03,160
And the Biden administration didn't change that at
526
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,440
all, which you would have thought, you know,
527
00:21:05,500 --> 00:21:05,700
just.
528
00:21:07,020 --> 00:21:08,720
Policy wise, they might have been in a
529
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,820
different perspective or whatever.
530
00:21:12,460 --> 00:21:16,580
But, you know, they really maintained the same
531
00:21:16,580 --> 00:21:19,480
same game plan would have been difficult for
532
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:20,860
President Biden to do so.
533
00:21:21,500 --> 00:21:23,460
The relationship with China has degraded.
534
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:24,740
In fact, you know, we had a period
535
00:21:24,740 --> 00:21:27,520
where we weren't even communicating with China, even
536
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,260
on the even on the secure military, military
537
00:21:30,260 --> 00:21:32,460
to military communication.
538
00:21:32,500 --> 00:21:34,400
So I think it would have been difficult
539
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,280
for him to ease up on China when
540
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,540
kind of the relationship was so bad.
541
00:21:40,540 --> 00:21:41,240
Yeah.
542
00:21:41,820 --> 00:21:42,340
Yeah.
543
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,940
So thinking about taxes, which is something our
544
00:21:45,940 --> 00:21:47,940
clients are asking us a lot to, you
545
00:21:47,940 --> 00:21:51,820
know, with will the twenty eighteen tax and
546
00:21:51,820 --> 00:21:55,280
jobs and jobs act right be extended?
547
00:21:55,860 --> 00:21:57,960
And if it is extended, does it look
548
00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:59,240
the same as it does today?
549
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,320
And of course, again, this is an element
550
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,580
of crystal ball gazing to know what will
551
00:22:05,580 --> 00:22:06,060
happen.
552
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,740
I think it is widely expected, though, that
553
00:22:08,740 --> 00:22:11,500
the the essence of the tax cut and
554
00:22:11,500 --> 00:22:13,280
jobs act, which is, you know, some of
555
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,820
these key parts of it would be extended.
556
00:22:17,940 --> 00:22:20,860
Now, you know, that's again, it's a tight
557
00:22:20,860 --> 00:22:21,440
Congress.
558
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,700
And as much as it is Republican leadership
559
00:22:25,700 --> 00:22:29,620
presently when it comes to both houses of
560
00:22:29,620 --> 00:22:32,480
Congress, it's pretty thin majorities.
561
00:22:33,020 --> 00:22:35,120
And it might might not be as easy
562
00:22:35,120 --> 00:22:38,240
as we, you know, just on its face
563
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:39,300
what we might expect.
564
00:22:39,460 --> 00:22:43,880
But I would say, I think that there's,
565
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:47,800
you know, hope, expectation that just the current
566
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:49,200
status quo gets extended.
567
00:22:49,360 --> 00:22:52,720
Now, the problem, of course, is we continue
568
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,320
to be operating at a pretty big deficit.
569
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,380
And, you know, one point nine trillion, I
570
00:22:58,380 --> 00:23:01,740
think we said previously, that was last year's
571
00:23:01,740 --> 00:23:02,720
last fiscal year.
572
00:23:03,120 --> 00:23:04,820
We still don't have any kind of budget
573
00:23:04,820 --> 00:23:05,440
for this year.
574
00:23:05,540 --> 00:23:07,280
We're operating on last year's.
575
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:08,380
Yeah, we're going to launch.
576
00:23:08,660 --> 00:23:08,760
Right.
577
00:23:09,060 --> 00:23:09,380
Right.
578
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,160
So, you know, and by then we're halfway
579
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,620
through, you know, the fiscal year.
580
00:23:14,700 --> 00:23:14,980
Right.
581
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,140
So you got to assume it's going to
582
00:23:17,140 --> 00:23:20,460
be something similar next year, you know, twenty
583
00:23:20,460 --> 00:23:22,420
twenty five rather, you know, this year.
584
00:23:22,420 --> 00:23:24,760
Not but there's no reason to really be
585
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:25,980
optimistic about it.
586
00:23:27,780 --> 00:23:31,160
So that leads us to this question of,
587
00:23:32,540 --> 00:23:34,980
you know, is it good policy from the
588
00:23:34,980 --> 00:23:40,300
point of view of the growth of our
589
00:23:40,300 --> 00:23:42,380
debt or, you know, that issue?
590
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,200
But from, you know, the idea that, oh,
591
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:49,340
there's less government burden, less there's more money
592
00:23:49,340 --> 00:23:51,060
in my pocket, I've got more money to
593
00:23:51,060 --> 00:23:51,300
spend.
594
00:23:51,300 --> 00:23:52,580
That's good for consumption.
595
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,000
We're a 70 percent consumer driven economy.
596
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,060
Well, by and by and large, that sounds
597
00:24:01,060 --> 00:24:03,960
like, you know, less lighter load on taxes
598
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:04,940
generally is good.
599
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:06,720
So kind of mindset.
600
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:10,880
My crystal balls has me thinking that to
601
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:16,640
get the tax cut bill passed again.
602
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:22,100
Yeah, this is in it's contrary to good
603
00:24:22,100 --> 00:24:24,020
government policy and how to do this.
604
00:24:24,100 --> 00:24:26,620
It's contrary to thinking about the debt.
605
00:24:26,740 --> 00:24:27,880
But this is what I think is going
606
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:28,280
to happen.
607
00:24:30,100 --> 00:24:34,740
Salt state and local taxes, which impact typically
608
00:24:34,740 --> 00:24:38,920
states that have high property taxes and high
609
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,840
state taxes, typically blue states, incidentally blue states,
610
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,440
California, New York, New Jersey, just Connecticut, maybe
611
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,460
just to name Massachusetts, I guess.
612
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:50,920
So to name some states.
613
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,380
So I think there's a lot of pressure
614
00:24:53,380 --> 00:24:59,880
from Republican members of Congress and certainly Democrat
615
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:02,960
members of Congress agree with eliminating salt.
616
00:25:03,620 --> 00:25:05,160
So if you have a bill to extend
617
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,840
the tax cuts for a period of time,
618
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:09,000
just to be clear.
619
00:25:09,380 --> 00:25:11,640
So for right now, there's a cap.
620
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,540
I think it's $10,000 of what you
621
00:25:15,540 --> 00:25:17,820
can deduct when you have these expenses that
622
00:25:17,820 --> 00:25:18,760
you were just talking about.
623
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:19,100
Yeah.
624
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:20,920
And for many people in those states, you
625
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,140
know, this their income tax and their property
626
00:25:24,140 --> 00:25:26,620
taxes are combined is over 10,000.
627
00:25:26,900 --> 00:25:28,820
Never mind if they have a second home
628
00:25:28,820 --> 00:25:30,960
or a high income or whatever.
629
00:25:31,180 --> 00:25:35,220
So state and local taxes, salt ends up
630
00:25:35,220 --> 00:25:38,200
being limited as to how much you can
631
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:38,680
deduct.
632
00:25:38,900 --> 00:25:39,160
Right.
633
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:40,120
Doesn't work too well.
634
00:25:40,700 --> 00:25:43,860
So if they eliminate salt, the salt provision,
635
00:25:44,120 --> 00:25:48,640
it delays the Republican members from those states.
636
00:25:48,900 --> 00:25:50,600
California and New York are really the only
637
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,740
ones that have many members of Congress.
638
00:25:53,100 --> 00:25:55,680
But it also makes it difficult for Democratic
639
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,800
members who have run on this issue.
640
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,000
And so I think that's one of the
641
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:03,900
things they'll do is, of course, that's bad
642
00:26:03,900 --> 00:26:05,540
for the national debt and deficit.
643
00:26:05,540 --> 00:26:06,340
Right.
644
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:11,020
But even even more disappointing, if you will,
645
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,980
for good government, lower taxes is good government.
646
00:26:14,980 --> 00:26:16,460
So I don't want to make it sound
647
00:26:16,460 --> 00:26:17,080
like it's not.
648
00:26:17,180 --> 00:26:20,580
But I think the tax bill, the border
649
00:26:20,580 --> 00:26:23,420
bill and some other types of bills are
650
00:26:23,420 --> 00:26:25,840
going to be in one bill that are
651
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:29,320
going to be released as this massive piece
652
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:33,920
of legislation, the Trump proposal, the Trump desires,
653
00:26:34,060 --> 00:26:34,240
right?
654
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,120
The things he ran on is going to
655
00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:40,440
be put together in one single bill, February
656
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,160
or March, and they're going to try to
657
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:43,960
get it done all at one time.
658
00:26:44,140 --> 00:26:45,480
So they're going to use all the pressure
659
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:49,180
of, you know, if you want better immigration,
660
00:26:49,300 --> 00:26:50,500
you have to vote for this bill.
661
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,300
If you want lower taxes, you have to
662
00:26:52,300 --> 00:26:53,040
vote for this bill.
663
00:26:53,120 --> 00:26:54,300
And if you don't vote for this bill,
664
00:26:54,300 --> 00:26:57,200
you're voting against all those good things.
665
00:26:57,420 --> 00:26:58,240
So we'll put the.
666
00:26:58,580 --> 00:26:59,680
Well, good luck with that one.
667
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,520
Number one, that's that's entirely hypocritical based on,
668
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,540
you know, if you remember, you have to
669
00:27:05,540 --> 00:27:07,820
pass it to read it kind of thing.
670
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,700
Single subject rule, all those things.
671
00:27:12,900 --> 00:27:15,800
It's but anyway, that's what my crystal ball
672
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,380
is telling me, it's probably the most plausible
673
00:27:18,380 --> 00:27:21,260
way that it would get past a number
674
00:27:21,260 --> 00:27:21,720
of things.
675
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,440
You know, it holds the Republicans in line
676
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,340
because if they don't vote for it.
677
00:27:27,180 --> 00:27:29,460
They're going to be voting if they vote,
678
00:27:29,540 --> 00:27:31,660
no, they're going to be voting no on
679
00:27:31,660 --> 00:27:34,120
immigration reform, they're going to be voting no
680
00:27:34,120 --> 00:27:37,600
on tax decrease and no on whatever else
681
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,600
is in there that is on the Republican
682
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,900
agenda now in the campaign trail, the president
683
00:27:43,900 --> 00:27:47,580
elect now probably on the day this airs,
684
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:52,460
the president talked about eliminating taxes on Social
685
00:27:52,460 --> 00:27:55,460
Security benefits, eliminating taxes on tips.
686
00:27:56,180 --> 00:27:58,380
I don't know if they're going to be
687
00:27:58,380 --> 00:27:58,600
in there.
688
00:27:58,700 --> 00:27:59,060
I don't know.
689
00:27:59,300 --> 00:28:01,900
I think that's going to be really hard
690
00:28:01,900 --> 00:28:03,800
to include all that stuff.
691
00:28:04,120 --> 00:28:08,340
But yeah, I'm sure that that'll be an
692
00:28:08,340 --> 00:28:09,960
effort to see what he can get in
693
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:10,180
there.
694
00:28:10,500 --> 00:28:12,100
Yeah, I think not at this point.
695
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,000
I think I think they won't formally take
696
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:15,760
it off the agenda.
697
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,380
But if they put too much of just
698
00:28:18,380 --> 00:28:21,280
try to extend what's there and then do
699
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:22,460
some immigration stuff.
700
00:28:22,460 --> 00:28:22,920
Yeah.
701
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,040
All right.
702
00:28:25,100 --> 00:28:27,700
So that and that leads to immigration with
703
00:28:27,700 --> 00:28:28,420
the topic.
704
00:28:28,820 --> 00:28:30,320
One is border control.
705
00:28:30,620 --> 00:28:32,380
I think there's no question we're going to
706
00:28:32,380 --> 00:28:36,500
see a more significant emphasis on border safety,
707
00:28:36,740 --> 00:28:39,880
border security, what that translates to in terms
708
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:47,280
of more infrastructure for the existing structure of
709
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,480
trying to do more legal immigration, the processing
710
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:54,600
of legal applications, which is a big delay.
711
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,840
I mean, it's a long, long delay for
712
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,820
people who are trying to pursue the immigration
713
00:29:00,820 --> 00:29:01,900
through the legal process.
714
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,180
The system is overwhelmed, obviously.
715
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:04,780
Yeah.
716
00:29:04,900 --> 00:29:07,360
So I think, you know, you need more
717
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,820
infrastructure there as part of the way, as
718
00:29:10,820 --> 00:29:11,620
part of the solution.
719
00:29:11,900 --> 00:29:15,800
But in addition to the security of, you
720
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,480
know, don't want people sneaking in.
721
00:29:18,900 --> 00:29:22,100
The the the bigger question, I guess, becomes
722
00:29:22,100 --> 00:29:24,820
what will really happen relative to the rhetoric
723
00:29:24,820 --> 00:29:27,040
around deportation?
724
00:29:28,020 --> 00:29:30,860
I think it's pretty clear if you listen
725
00:29:30,860 --> 00:29:33,840
to Horman, who's going to be President Trump's
726
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:37,240
border czar, if you will, and the president
727
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:41,280
himself recently, his tone on immigration has changed
728
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,060
from the campaign rhetoric a bit.
729
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:43,740
Yeah.
730
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,260
Being targeted against.
731
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,560
Criminal aliens, criminal people who are illegally or
732
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:53,340
here legally, but on a temporary basis, if
733
00:29:53,340 --> 00:29:55,260
they commit certain crimes, they had a big
734
00:29:55,260 --> 00:29:58,120
debate last week in Chicago where they tried
735
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:03,740
to the city council tried to void the
736
00:30:03,740 --> 00:30:07,280
previous law that Chicago wouldn't work with ICE.
737
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,820
And so this this discussion's happening around the
738
00:30:09,820 --> 00:30:10,160
country.
739
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,280
And I think that the first thing and
740
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:14,560
the first thing is so big that I
741
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:15,620
don't know if you get to the second
742
00:30:15,620 --> 00:30:17,920
thing of getting the people out of the
743
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,020
country who are committing crimes, harming children, you
744
00:30:21,020 --> 00:30:23,200
know, not being good citizens, if you will.
745
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,440
Yeah, I think there's enough work there to
746
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,360
keep everybody busy in the system busy.
747
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,320
On the other end of that spectrum, I
748
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:32,520
would think you'd have more political cover, more
749
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,960
support for that kind of thing to say,
750
00:30:35,060 --> 00:30:37,480
look, you know, these are people who are
751
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,160
putting our citizens at risk.
752
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:41,500
You know, that's one thing.
753
00:30:41,500 --> 00:30:43,800
And I think most people would say, OK,
754
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:44,960
yeah, I agree with that.
755
00:30:45,220 --> 00:30:46,660
That is the low hanging fruit in this.
756
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:48,780
Yeah, I mean, it's a term that we
757
00:30:48,780 --> 00:30:49,140
use.
758
00:30:51,300 --> 00:30:53,360
So that I think that's where that goes.
759
00:30:53,500 --> 00:30:54,680
And on the other end of the spectrum
760
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,520
are the dreamers and dreamers are defined as
761
00:30:57,520 --> 00:30:59,640
a minor that was taken into the country,
762
00:31:00,060 --> 00:31:02,480
not on their own, taking in either smuggled
763
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,240
in by a parent or, you know, across
764
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:05,120
the border with a parent.
765
00:31:05,260 --> 00:31:07,680
And the child, if you will, at the
766
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,700
time had no criminal intent, no intent at
767
00:31:10,700 --> 00:31:10,920
all.
768
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:12,860
They're just going where they're told to go.
769
00:31:13,340 --> 00:31:13,460
Yeah.
770
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,400
And they become part of the part of
771
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:17,920
their culture, their experience.
772
00:31:18,060 --> 00:31:20,920
They've been raised in this country, really have
773
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,260
no ties to anywhere else.
774
00:31:23,460 --> 00:31:24,060
They speak English.
775
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:25,200
They've attended school.
776
00:31:25,420 --> 00:31:26,960
They, you know, depending on how old they
777
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:28,580
are, I mean, some are in first grade
778
00:31:28,580 --> 00:31:30,640
now and some are 30 years old.
779
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:30,860
Right.
780
00:31:31,020 --> 00:31:31,180
So.
781
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:31,980
Right, right.
782
00:31:32,980 --> 00:31:36,620
And President Trump just last week made comments
783
00:31:36,620 --> 00:31:37,120
about that.
784
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:38,780
That was something that was on his agenda
785
00:31:38,780 --> 00:31:39,300
as well.
786
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:44,360
So those two things in the immigration debate
787
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,480
are the easy and right things to do.
788
00:31:49,300 --> 00:31:51,780
Deporting people who aren't supposed to be here,
789
00:31:51,860 --> 00:31:56,060
who are harmful to our society, criminals, let's
790
00:31:56,060 --> 00:31:56,640
work on that.
791
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:58,480
And the people who are.
792
00:31:59,420 --> 00:32:02,020
All but, you know, for that, they weren't
793
00:32:02,020 --> 00:32:04,200
born here, have been good American citizens, they
794
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:05,960
didn't violate a law intentionally.
795
00:32:06,580 --> 00:32:06,800
Yeah.
796
00:32:07,900 --> 00:32:09,320
I think that's where you start.
797
00:32:09,900 --> 00:32:11,460
I know there's a big middle there.
798
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:12,060
There's a lot.
799
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,020
No, but I think you're right that there's
800
00:32:14,020 --> 00:32:16,120
a lot of support around both ends of
801
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:16,800
that spectrum.
802
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:18,720
And why not do the things that most
803
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:22,460
Americans support makes our country safer and makes
804
00:32:22,460 --> 00:32:24,780
people make people have the legal ability to
805
00:32:24,780 --> 00:32:26,200
work and be good citizens?
806
00:32:27,580 --> 00:32:28,740
So I think, you know, when you talk
807
00:32:28,740 --> 00:32:30,900
about that and the economic consequence of that,
808
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,660
you think, OK, that that's that's palatable.
809
00:32:33,660 --> 00:32:36,400
It's not something that's going to be disruptive
810
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:37,620
to the economy.
811
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:41,140
The idea of deporting every person who's here
812
00:32:41,140 --> 00:32:46,200
illegally, though, you know, fair in some sense,
813
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,940
OK, it's, you know, it's, you know, violates
814
00:32:48,940 --> 00:32:50,920
the our laws.
815
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:52,220
You know, that that's one thing.
816
00:32:52,380 --> 00:32:52,500
But.
817
00:32:53,620 --> 00:32:57,260
As a practical reality, that becomes really disruptive
818
00:32:57,260 --> 00:33:01,160
to the economy and obviously these individuals.
819
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,620
But, you know, the the economy impact, we're
820
00:33:04,620 --> 00:33:05,840
already short of labor.
821
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,440
And if we then scoop out, you know,
822
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,080
I don't know how many million people that
823
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,780
is from 10 million, maybe 10 to 20,
824
00:33:14,860 --> 00:33:15,580
I think I've heard.
825
00:33:15,700 --> 00:33:15,860
Right.
826
00:33:16,420 --> 00:33:18,760
Anyway, whatever the number on it on purpose,
827
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:20,360
meaning.
828
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:22,000
Yeah, at least.
829
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:24,380
So you have this if you had this
830
00:33:24,380 --> 00:33:27,520
enormous and the logistics of that and the
831
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:31,360
cost of that and just the whole endeavor
832
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,820
would be so enormous.
833
00:33:34,300 --> 00:33:36,360
I think, you know, maybe there's an element
834
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:40,280
of, hey, we do some deportation and try
835
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,640
to encourage self-deportation, you know, that people
836
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:43,980
go, oh, they're cracking down.
837
00:33:44,060 --> 00:33:45,900
I better go home, you know, that kind
838
00:33:45,900 --> 00:33:46,200
of thing.
839
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,620
But by and large, I think, you know,
840
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,040
what we often forget is that we don't
841
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:55,180
we're not growing as a nation demographically by
842
00:33:55,180 --> 00:33:56,080
births.
843
00:33:56,740 --> 00:33:59,380
And for an economy to grow and expand,
844
00:33:59,860 --> 00:34:02,000
in our case, part of the way it's
845
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,800
grown and expanded historically has been because of
846
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:06,120
demographic considerations.
847
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:07,840
We've had more consumers.
848
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:13,360
You know, growing population, and we rely in
849
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,340
part on immigration for that.
850
00:34:15,460 --> 00:34:17,320
Now, we want that to be legal immigration.
851
00:34:17,659 --> 00:34:20,480
But the reality is, too, we do have
852
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,420
people here who spend money, who are consumers,
853
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,960
who are here as part of that group
854
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:28,400
that you're talking in the middle, right?
855
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:29,639
That's like, where do we go?
856
00:34:30,219 --> 00:34:32,860
So I just think there's likely to be
857
00:34:32,860 --> 00:34:34,840
a challenge for the economy in terms of
858
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:38,900
labor and in terms of the consumer impact.
859
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:44,100
It is an economic component as well as
860
00:34:44,100 --> 00:34:47,280
all these other dimensions of the issue.
861
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:49,400
And if you tried to do that first,
862
00:34:49,739 --> 00:34:52,219
you don't have the resources to do the
863
00:34:52,219 --> 00:34:53,280
other ends of the spectrum.
864
00:34:53,460 --> 00:34:53,980
Right.
865
00:34:54,460 --> 00:34:56,220
So and it's not going to work.
866
00:34:56,420 --> 00:34:58,800
So it just seems unlikely, I guess, is
867
00:34:58,800 --> 00:34:59,520
the expectation.
868
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:00,780
You're not going to have as much of
869
00:35:00,780 --> 00:35:01,040
that.
870
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:06,540
So I think most the market generally, I
871
00:35:06,540 --> 00:35:10,180
think, has dismissed some of that talk as
872
00:35:10,180 --> 00:35:14,620
not actually likely to happen and therefore less
873
00:35:14,620 --> 00:35:17,780
worrisome as an economic consequence and therefore how
874
00:35:17,780 --> 00:35:18,640
does it affect the markets?
875
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:20,440
I would agree with that.
876
00:35:20,580 --> 00:35:22,340
And Trump's going to be able to fulfill
877
00:35:22,340 --> 00:35:26,960
his broader promise if the border is actually
878
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,920
secure and he's decreasing the number of criminals
879
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,740
who happen to be illegal in the United
880
00:35:33,740 --> 00:35:34,140
States.
881
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,160
And there's a lot of news on that.
882
00:35:36,340 --> 00:35:38,160
And the Dreamer question is solved.
883
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,940
If those three things happened, I think he
884
00:35:40,940 --> 00:35:43,680
would deserve an A plus on his immigration
885
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,780
policy if those get done in four years.
886
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,620
What were some of the other topics that
887
00:35:49,620 --> 00:35:53,360
you thought would be relevant to discuss here,
888
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:53,880
Jeff?
889
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:55,860
Well, you touched on, you know, it's not
890
00:35:55,860 --> 00:35:58,460
a real exciting one, but it is impactful.
891
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,900
I think is the regulatory environment, you know,
892
00:36:00,900 --> 00:36:03,360
the rules and regulations that agencies make.
893
00:36:03,500 --> 00:36:08,260
Sometimes Congress passes broad, you know, inspiring laws
894
00:36:08,260 --> 00:36:10,100
that will do X, Y or Z and
895
00:36:10,100 --> 00:36:12,500
they leave it to the agencies to promulgate
896
00:36:12,500 --> 00:36:13,180
regulations.
897
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,720
And oftentimes it's a complaint of conservatives, including
898
00:36:16,720 --> 00:36:19,840
myself, that these regulatory agencies act beyond the
899
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,840
scope or, you know, or have broad powers
900
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:27,040
that are somewhat you question is this beyond
901
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:31,340
their legislative, beyond the intent of the legislation.
902
00:36:31,740 --> 00:36:34,020
You know, it comes up in all forms
903
00:36:34,020 --> 00:36:34,600
of businesses.
904
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:36,760
But some of the two industries that I
905
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:40,520
think the prognosticators are thinking will be beneficial,
906
00:36:40,860 --> 00:36:46,020
benefited by this less regulation or deregulation is
907
00:36:46,020 --> 00:36:47,960
energy, right?
908
00:36:48,380 --> 00:36:51,320
More energy development, more drilling, drill, baby drill.
909
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,880
And the finance industry, quite frankly, who is
910
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:59,580
a general consensus among Republicans that the financial
911
00:36:59,580 --> 00:37:02,800
industry has been overregulated by previous the previous
912
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:05,840
administration, the Biden administration.
913
00:37:06,540 --> 00:37:07,960
So I think it's interesting.
914
00:37:08,140 --> 00:37:09,660
I bet a lot of people would be
915
00:37:09,660 --> 00:37:11,940
surprised to know that we produce more oil
916
00:37:11,940 --> 00:37:17,180
than ever before, you know, that people think,
917
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,380
you know, drill, baby drill, that there's been
918
00:37:19,380 --> 00:37:24,000
some restraint because of public lands and things
919
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,580
like this that may be publicized.
920
00:37:26,720 --> 00:37:28,960
But when it comes to output, the U
921
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:32,080
.S. is doing a great deal of production.
922
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:39,420
We are a net exporter of energy when
923
00:37:39,420 --> 00:37:40,920
it comes to that kind of thing.
924
00:37:41,060 --> 00:37:45,680
So that this also ties into that question
925
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,320
of when you think about what will be
926
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:55,600
the impact of, say, a more liberal regulatory
927
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,280
policy in the case of energy, as an
928
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:02,320
example, you might expect energy stocks to do
929
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:02,860
better.
930
00:38:03,460 --> 00:38:06,240
When you look at the past Trump administration,
931
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:10,200
energy did not do as well under that
932
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,380
administration because the prices went down, I guess,
933
00:38:13,620 --> 00:38:17,600
and therefore the profitability was greater supply.
934
00:38:17,860 --> 00:38:20,260
And the opposite is true under the Biden
935
00:38:20,260 --> 00:38:20,560
administration.
936
00:38:20,720 --> 00:38:21,880
You'd have thought it would be the other
937
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:23,840
way around, that energy stocks wouldn't do as
938
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:24,040
well.
939
00:38:24,500 --> 00:38:25,480
It's just it's one of these things where
940
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:27,600
things don't always move the way you expect.
941
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,500
You can't look at it overly simply.
942
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:30,860
It's not as simplified as that.
943
00:38:31,100 --> 00:38:31,200
Yeah.
944
00:38:31,300 --> 00:38:33,920
So in any case, but yeah, I think
945
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:37,300
there is expectation that those are two examples.
946
00:38:37,780 --> 00:38:39,100
What was the second one that you mentioned,
947
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:39,560
by the way?
948
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:44,320
It was security, securities, financial, financial sector.
949
00:38:44,460 --> 00:38:44,560
Yeah.
950
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:48,600
And, you know, one of those instances, the
951
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:52,760
current SEC chair who will be is being
952
00:38:52,760 --> 00:39:00,760
replaced, has been pretty antagonistic toward cryptocurrency and,
953
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:09,560
you know, desiring to limit access or in
954
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,900
terms of products like ETFs and mutual funds,
955
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,260
they've been sort of guarded about this from
956
00:39:15,260 --> 00:39:18,760
the idea that this may not be always
957
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:20,560
something consumers understand.
958
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,560
And would it be in their best interest?
959
00:39:22,740 --> 00:39:23,500
You know, that kind of thing.
960
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:26,220
I think it's right, by the way, to
961
00:39:26,220 --> 00:39:28,400
go slow and make sure you don't just
962
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:28,980
jump in.
963
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:35,160
And I think that you're right, that Gensler
964
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:41,670
was really more of a challenging, trying to
965
00:39:41,670 --> 00:39:44,330
add some regulatory burden, trying to be more
966
00:39:44,330 --> 00:39:49,570
proactive in a consumer protection kind of mindset.
967
00:39:50,130 --> 00:39:53,230
But in any case, so we'll see what
968
00:39:53,230 --> 00:39:55,290
what that translates to.
969
00:39:55,610 --> 00:39:58,590
Well, the market certainly thinks it's, you know,
970
00:39:58,850 --> 00:40:01,390
Wild West is coming because its price has
971
00:40:01,390 --> 00:40:03,010
gone up substantially.
972
00:40:03,370 --> 00:40:06,970
Bitcoin people, there's lots of cryptocurrencies, but people,
973
00:40:07,370 --> 00:40:09,810
you know, casual viewer has heard of Bitcoin
974
00:40:09,810 --> 00:40:11,290
and maybe they follow the price a little
975
00:40:11,290 --> 00:40:11,550
bit.
976
00:40:12,310 --> 00:40:14,530
CNBC is flashing it every 30 seconds on
977
00:40:14,530 --> 00:40:14,930
the TV.
978
00:40:14,930 --> 00:40:20,330
So price of bitcoins, you know, when I'm
979
00:40:20,330 --> 00:40:22,390
talking today here, I think it was around
980
00:40:22,390 --> 00:40:25,710
$100,000 and that's up from the $70
981
00:40:25,710 --> 00:40:28,470
,000 range right before the election.
982
00:40:28,610 --> 00:40:29,930
And it had gone up before that in
983
00:40:29,930 --> 00:40:31,270
speculation that Trump could win.
984
00:40:31,850 --> 00:40:35,170
So it certainly thinks that Trump is going
985
00:40:35,170 --> 00:40:36,790
to be favorable to the industry.
986
00:40:37,910 --> 00:40:39,510
Yeah, I think that's very true.
987
00:40:39,930 --> 00:40:41,890
That's its own show.
988
00:40:41,890 --> 00:40:45,270
I mean, let's let's have more conversation about
989
00:40:45,270 --> 00:40:46,610
cryptocurrency.
990
00:40:47,050 --> 00:40:47,830
Sometimes a bubble.
991
00:40:48,070 --> 00:40:49,230
There you go.
992
00:40:50,550 --> 00:40:52,550
I think it's I think it's a topic
993
00:40:52,550 --> 00:40:56,150
that's worthy of more in-depth conversation.
994
00:40:57,270 --> 00:41:00,750
I've heard repeatedly on the campaign trail that
995
00:41:00,750 --> 00:41:02,590
we really don't need an education department.
996
00:41:03,230 --> 00:41:06,730
What are some other examples of deregulation that
997
00:41:06,730 --> 00:41:07,050
might?
998
00:41:09,070 --> 00:41:11,530
Well, energy department, I think, is in that
999
00:41:11,530 --> 00:41:14,490
same bucket of things that might disappear.
1000
00:41:15,530 --> 00:41:16,910
I'm not sure it's going to happen.
1001
00:41:17,150 --> 00:41:18,870
I don't know that it'll actually disappear in
1002
00:41:18,870 --> 00:41:19,950
any of these instances.
1003
00:41:20,310 --> 00:41:23,390
But, you know, what's the the idea that
1004
00:41:23,390 --> 00:41:25,850
government is an organism that doesn't like to
1005
00:41:25,850 --> 00:41:26,810
shrink or something?
1006
00:41:27,290 --> 00:41:29,610
Well, we have we have another I don't
1007
00:41:29,610 --> 00:41:29,830
know.
1008
00:41:29,930 --> 00:41:30,950
It's not an agency.
1009
00:41:30,950 --> 00:41:36,410
We have a group led by Ramaswamy and
1010
00:41:36,410 --> 00:41:39,490
Musk who are who are delegated with the
1011
00:41:39,490 --> 00:41:41,110
task of doing just that.
1012
00:41:42,450 --> 00:41:44,310
Doge, they call it, which is, you know,
1013
00:41:44,370 --> 00:41:45,610
I don't want to go back to cryptocurrency.
1014
00:41:46,210 --> 00:41:47,770
Yeah, it is the same.
1015
00:41:47,770 --> 00:41:50,610
I have a client who said, I'm going
1016
00:41:50,610 --> 00:41:52,450
to buy that just because I think there's
1017
00:41:52,450 --> 00:41:54,370
a lot of people because of this Doge
1018
00:41:54,370 --> 00:41:55,590
department that are going to.
1019
00:41:56,090 --> 00:41:57,190
Stranger things have happened, right?
1020
00:41:57,270 --> 00:41:57,650
Yeah.
1021
00:41:57,650 --> 00:41:58,030
Yeah.
1022
00:41:58,490 --> 00:42:00,270
And so far, it's worked to his advantage.
1023
00:42:00,270 --> 00:42:00,950
I don't know.
1024
00:42:01,130 --> 00:42:02,310
Remember the dotcom days?
1025
00:42:02,790 --> 00:42:05,770
Recently, Elon Musk was bringing down his estimate
1026
00:42:05,770 --> 00:42:07,210
for how much they're going to he's going
1027
00:42:07,210 --> 00:42:07,870
to be able to cut.
1028
00:42:07,930 --> 00:42:09,350
I think it went from two trillion to
1029
00:42:09,350 --> 00:42:09,870
one trillion.
1030
00:42:10,290 --> 00:42:13,130
Yeah, I mean, he's actually done some homework.
1031
00:42:13,150 --> 00:42:14,890
He realizes there's it's going to be harder
1032
00:42:14,890 --> 00:42:16,310
to do than he planned.
1033
00:42:16,430 --> 00:42:16,570
Right.
1034
00:42:17,410 --> 00:42:17,850
Yeah.
1035
00:42:18,630 --> 00:42:20,510
But, you know, I agree with you, Chris.
1036
00:42:20,530 --> 00:42:22,090
Government is ever expanding.
1037
00:42:22,330 --> 00:42:24,790
And, you know, that's it's a natural growth
1038
00:42:24,790 --> 00:42:28,250
of government where it's either under both parties.
1039
00:42:28,690 --> 00:42:28,790
Yeah.
1040
00:42:28,990 --> 00:42:32,170
I mean, conservatives, Republicans, we try to.
1041
00:42:33,390 --> 00:42:34,830
The rhetoric is we want it to be
1042
00:42:34,830 --> 00:42:37,630
small, but actually it's not made smaller when
1043
00:42:37,630 --> 00:42:38,850
we're in office, unfortunately.
1044
00:42:39,150 --> 00:42:42,150
But if it's ever going to happen, this
1045
00:42:42,150 --> 00:42:44,550
is the opportunity that it could happen because
1046
00:42:44,550 --> 00:42:47,850
you have a president who who campaigned on
1047
00:42:47,850 --> 00:42:47,990
it.
1048
00:42:48,070 --> 00:42:50,330
He created an entity to focus on it,
1049
00:42:50,590 --> 00:42:52,950
whether or not it can achieve the what
1050
00:42:52,950 --> 00:42:53,350
number.
1051
00:42:53,810 --> 00:42:54,050
Yeah.
1052
00:42:54,530 --> 00:42:57,470
And how much fraud, waste and abuse, you
1053
00:42:57,470 --> 00:42:58,790
know, that kind of thing that we always
1054
00:42:58,790 --> 00:43:01,590
talk about, how much really they can identify
1055
00:43:01,590 --> 00:43:03,450
and eliminate is.
1056
00:43:04,030 --> 00:43:06,350
It's there, whether or not they can identify
1057
00:43:06,350 --> 00:43:08,550
and eliminate it, but it is there.
1058
00:43:08,670 --> 00:43:10,030
And so I think that's going to be
1059
00:43:10,030 --> 00:43:12,630
one of the more entertaining aspects of this
1060
00:43:12,630 --> 00:43:15,630
next administration in a good way is when
1061
00:43:15,630 --> 00:43:19,410
they expose hopefully when they expose whatever they
1062
00:43:19,410 --> 00:43:19,990
find.
1063
00:43:20,230 --> 00:43:22,990
And there's a public debate of, you know,
1064
00:43:23,150 --> 00:43:24,030
for example.
1065
00:43:25,950 --> 00:43:28,030
Should we be paying hundreds of millions of
1066
00:43:28,030 --> 00:43:30,390
dollars to subsidize public radio today?
1067
00:43:31,030 --> 00:43:32,650
I think that's a good debate that the
1068
00:43:32,650 --> 00:43:34,650
country should have where we are in our
1069
00:43:34,650 --> 00:43:36,610
society and how we get information and the
1070
00:43:36,610 --> 00:43:39,770
resources available is certainly different than when this
1071
00:43:39,770 --> 00:43:40,150
started.
1072
00:43:40,990 --> 00:43:43,230
Should we be should we be doing that?
1073
00:43:43,290 --> 00:43:45,870
And I know everything I know when this
1074
00:43:45,870 --> 00:43:46,610
debate comes up.
1075
00:43:46,710 --> 00:43:48,430
Oh, it's only a very small part.
1076
00:43:48,430 --> 00:43:50,630
It won't mean anything to the national deficit.
1077
00:43:51,210 --> 00:43:51,310
No.
1078
00:43:51,390 --> 00:43:53,450
But when you have all of these things,
1079
00:43:53,650 --> 00:43:55,550
you know, assuming they find hundreds of things
1080
00:43:55,550 --> 00:43:57,450
like that, which I think they will, it
1081
00:43:57,450 --> 00:43:59,110
does add up to something and it does
1082
00:43:59,110 --> 00:43:59,490
matter.
1083
00:43:59,790 --> 00:44:03,470
So I look forward to that entity releasing
1084
00:44:03,470 --> 00:44:05,610
information and the public debate around it and
1085
00:44:05,610 --> 00:44:09,630
hopefully finding some things to reduce our burden.
1086
00:44:11,670 --> 00:44:15,450
I think one of the things that is
1087
00:44:15,450 --> 00:44:23,050
on undiscussed and maybe underestimated is the uncertainty
1088
00:44:23,050 --> 00:44:28,170
that comes with the Trump experience, right, that,
1089
00:44:28,270 --> 00:44:29,730
you know, there's a little bit of chaos
1090
00:44:29,730 --> 00:44:32,970
that surrounds Trump when it comes to his
1091
00:44:32,970 --> 00:44:34,050
management style.
1092
00:44:34,270 --> 00:44:35,750
There's no uncertainty there, Chris.
1093
00:44:36,110 --> 00:44:37,410
Yeah, it's going to be that.
1094
00:44:37,490 --> 00:44:39,450
I mean, that's just there's nothing new there.
1095
00:44:39,450 --> 00:44:42,670
And so my point is the market impact
1096
00:44:42,670 --> 00:44:44,610
that that can have is what I'm driving
1097
00:44:44,610 --> 00:44:47,110
at, you know, that we may have some
1098
00:44:47,110 --> 00:44:49,830
unanticipated moves just because of.
1099
00:44:51,070 --> 00:44:53,670
The way things are communicated, the.
1100
00:44:55,850 --> 00:44:59,850
The I think there's perpetually the notion that
1101
00:44:59,850 --> 00:45:02,210
there's I remember in the last administration, it
1102
00:45:02,210 --> 00:45:03,730
was drinking from a fire hose just trying
1103
00:45:03,730 --> 00:45:05,630
to keep up with what was being talked
1104
00:45:05,630 --> 00:45:07,590
about, what were some of the things being
1105
00:45:07,590 --> 00:45:09,310
attempted to be addressed?
1106
00:45:10,990 --> 00:45:13,230
And, you know, there is some sleight of
1107
00:45:13,230 --> 00:45:15,390
hand in the way that's dealt with where
1108
00:45:15,390 --> 00:45:17,310
we're looking over here, but there's something happening
1109
00:45:17,310 --> 00:45:17,850
over there.
1110
00:45:18,650 --> 00:45:21,050
And I think that's just an element that
1111
00:45:21,050 --> 00:45:22,290
we have to be mindful of.
1112
00:45:22,550 --> 00:45:27,330
There's other variables in terms of foreign interactions.
1113
00:45:27,330 --> 00:45:32,130
And what does that create for market?
1114
00:45:32,670 --> 00:45:34,530
You know, the last four years have been
1115
00:45:34,530 --> 00:45:35,190
full of them.
1116
00:45:35,330 --> 00:45:36,610
You know, we have a we had a
1117
00:45:36,610 --> 00:45:38,230
calm president, I'll give you that.
1118
00:45:38,230 --> 00:45:42,510
But we've had a increasing geopolitical scene.
1119
00:45:43,230 --> 00:45:45,550
So how does that play out over time?
1120
00:45:45,850 --> 00:45:48,350
It has the potential to get better.
1121
00:45:49,350 --> 00:45:50,570
Of course, it has the potential to get
1122
00:45:50,570 --> 00:45:50,830
worse.
1123
00:45:50,990 --> 00:45:52,930
I mean, I'm not saying it doesn't, but
1124
00:45:52,930 --> 00:45:57,110
I think having a strong president who.
1125
00:45:58,770 --> 00:46:01,250
Talks the talk of peace through strength and
1126
00:46:01,250 --> 00:46:04,050
in his first year, his first term certainly
1127
00:46:04,050 --> 00:46:06,990
exercised that, and we had more peace than
1128
00:46:06,990 --> 00:46:07,710
we have today.
1129
00:46:08,230 --> 00:46:09,970
I'm hopeful that that's a positive that we
1130
00:46:09,970 --> 00:46:11,670
see in all the noise.
1131
00:46:11,850 --> 00:46:13,570
I hope it's a positive element of it.
1132
00:46:14,970 --> 00:46:19,790
I think the the other variable that we
1133
00:46:19,790 --> 00:46:21,530
just will have to see how it plays
1134
00:46:21,530 --> 00:46:25,090
out is how well does Trump and the
1135
00:46:25,090 --> 00:46:26,250
Congress get along?
1136
00:46:27,010 --> 00:46:30,630
You know, will there be a collaborative effort
1137
00:46:30,630 --> 00:46:33,230
or will there be antagonism?
1138
00:46:34,810 --> 00:46:36,810
And I think the first day is the
1139
00:46:36,810 --> 00:46:37,270
best day.
1140
00:46:37,270 --> 00:46:40,410
That's why I think you're right.
1141
00:46:40,530 --> 00:46:43,210
That's why I think this bill that my
1142
00:46:43,210 --> 00:46:45,930
crystal ball, I refer to, is coming out
1143
00:46:45,930 --> 00:46:48,770
is is in recognition of let's get done
1144
00:46:48,770 --> 00:46:50,370
what we can get done, because.
1145
00:46:51,610 --> 00:46:53,190
You know, the closer we get to the
1146
00:46:53,190 --> 00:46:55,710
next election, I know it's two years away,
1147
00:46:55,790 --> 00:46:59,630
but the less likely members of Congress are
1148
00:46:59,630 --> 00:47:01,890
going to be willing to go along with
1149
00:47:01,890 --> 00:47:03,550
everything that they have to answer for.
1150
00:47:04,030 --> 00:47:08,450
Well, and I'm really concerned about March with
1151
00:47:08,450 --> 00:47:12,550
the debt ceiling and just how that plays
1152
00:47:12,550 --> 00:47:14,050
out and how that gets positioned.
1153
00:47:14,890 --> 00:47:17,550
You know, I just think there's a real
1154
00:47:17,550 --> 00:47:19,510
I don't know, I feel more worried about
1155
00:47:19,510 --> 00:47:21,170
it this time than in the past.
1156
00:47:21,590 --> 00:47:23,490
We may see the elimination of the debt
1157
00:47:23,490 --> 00:47:23,810
ceiling.
1158
00:47:24,410 --> 00:47:26,690
I think that would be a favorable thing.
1159
00:47:26,690 --> 00:47:28,610
And to deal with these issues on the
1160
00:47:28,610 --> 00:47:30,390
budget, that's where it belongs.
1161
00:47:30,510 --> 00:47:31,630
Where are we going to spend the money
1162
00:47:31,630 --> 00:47:32,110
or not?
1163
00:47:32,110 --> 00:47:33,290
Not at the time when we have to
1164
00:47:33,290 --> 00:47:34,630
pay the bill that we've already spent.
1165
00:47:35,570 --> 00:47:37,970
I think I think the idea of a
1166
00:47:37,970 --> 00:47:40,970
debt ceiling was it had merit, but I
1167
00:47:40,970 --> 00:47:41,950
don't think it's worked out.
1168
00:47:42,150 --> 00:47:44,130
It has obviously hasn't worked out because it
1169
00:47:44,130 --> 00:47:46,610
hasn't meant anything other than stress on the
1170
00:47:46,610 --> 00:47:48,270
system and fear in the market.
1171
00:47:48,510 --> 00:47:49,770
So it's a good point.
1172
00:47:49,930 --> 00:47:50,570
It's not serving.
1173
00:47:50,730 --> 00:47:51,770
It's not serving a purpose.
1174
00:47:51,850 --> 00:47:52,690
We need a better way.
1175
00:47:54,170 --> 00:47:55,670
Well, I don't know if there's anything else
1176
00:47:55,670 --> 00:47:56,570
you want to cover.
1177
00:47:56,670 --> 00:47:59,470
We covered a lot and we went a
1178
00:47:59,470 --> 00:48:00,630
little long, very long.
1179
00:48:00,630 --> 00:48:04,850
But it was it was entertaining to me.
1180
00:48:04,970 --> 00:48:06,130
I enjoyed the conversation.
1181
00:48:06,750 --> 00:48:09,810
Anything you want to add to something, Jeff,
1182
00:48:09,870 --> 00:48:11,230
that we didn't get to talk about?
1183
00:48:11,330 --> 00:48:14,470
No, just be positive and enjoy the next
1184
00:48:14,470 --> 00:48:16,150
four years of a wild ride.
1185
00:48:16,270 --> 00:48:17,070
Let's hope it's good.
1186
00:48:17,830 --> 00:48:19,670
Yeah, let me just mention that, look, you
1187
00:48:19,670 --> 00:48:22,610
know, as you're thinking about these issues, a
1188
00:48:22,610 --> 00:48:26,110
lot of times people will make the political,
1189
00:48:26,590 --> 00:48:30,490
the primary decision.
1190
00:48:30,490 --> 00:48:34,490
And factor in their portfolio and financial planning
1191
00:48:34,490 --> 00:48:37,510
considerations, we generally discourage that.
1192
00:48:37,690 --> 00:48:39,090
Let's say it's not relevant.
1193
00:48:39,210 --> 00:48:40,350
Let's not say it's not part of the
1194
00:48:40,350 --> 00:48:40,750
equation.
1195
00:48:42,430 --> 00:48:45,070
But, you know, we can be driven to
1196
00:48:45,070 --> 00:48:49,610
the extremes of, oh, I'm I'm out, you
1197
00:48:49,610 --> 00:48:53,090
know, the crazy town or I'm I'm out
1198
00:48:53,090 --> 00:48:54,770
when the other guys are in, you know,
1199
00:48:54,770 --> 00:48:57,130
like this notion of if it's not your
1200
00:48:57,130 --> 00:49:00,790
cup of tea for who's running, in this
1201
00:49:00,790 --> 00:49:03,830
case, the presidency or the Congress, you might
1202
00:49:03,830 --> 00:49:06,010
be inclined to say, oh, I want, you
1203
00:49:06,010 --> 00:49:07,110
know, it's bad or whatever.
1204
00:49:07,470 --> 00:49:08,710
Don't necessarily do that.
1205
00:49:08,770 --> 00:49:12,650
When you look back at various instances, I've
1206
00:49:12,650 --> 00:49:16,490
had clients who are Democrats and I've had
1207
00:49:16,490 --> 00:49:17,550
clients who are Republicans.
1208
00:49:18,650 --> 00:49:23,530
And we have probably have the same kind
1209
00:49:23,530 --> 00:49:26,070
of reaction when the other team wins.
1210
00:49:26,070 --> 00:49:27,590
It's just going to be a different group
1211
00:49:27,590 --> 00:49:29,170
of clients in the next four years than
1212
00:49:29,170 --> 00:49:30,690
it was in the previous four years.
1213
00:49:31,250 --> 00:49:33,190
And what ends up happening is when we
1214
00:49:33,190 --> 00:49:35,190
look back over a four year period.
1215
00:49:36,590 --> 00:49:41,070
Almost always markets are benefited from time and,
1216
00:49:41,170 --> 00:49:46,530
you know, increasing and profitability, so don't don't
1217
00:49:46,530 --> 00:49:47,230
overreact.
1218
00:49:47,550 --> 00:49:50,190
But if you have challenges, if you if
1219
00:49:50,190 --> 00:49:51,990
you're or you if you want to be
1220
00:49:51,990 --> 00:49:54,790
discussing, you can overreact on the other side
1221
00:49:54,790 --> 00:49:56,650
to taking more, you know, abundance of risk
1222
00:49:56,650 --> 00:49:58,470
because of your optimism or whatever.
1223
00:49:59,090 --> 00:50:01,990
When it comes to thinking about your portfolio
1224
00:50:01,990 --> 00:50:06,130
and you need a little bit of interaction
1225
00:50:06,130 --> 00:50:09,690
in that process, sometimes, you know, Jeff, when
1226
00:50:09,690 --> 00:50:11,490
you came in before you were part of
1227
00:50:11,490 --> 00:50:14,210
our team, you were looking for someone to
1228
00:50:14,210 --> 00:50:16,110
challenge your assumptions to right.
1229
00:50:16,350 --> 00:50:17,890
You know, I came in as a client
1230
00:50:17,890 --> 00:50:20,250
and saying, what am I missing?
1231
00:50:20,430 --> 00:50:22,430
Is there something I'm not seeing that, you
1232
00:50:22,430 --> 00:50:23,230
know, you might see?
1233
00:50:23,430 --> 00:50:26,550
Sometimes there's virtue in that getting a second
1234
00:50:26,550 --> 00:50:26,990
opinion.
1235
00:50:27,430 --> 00:50:29,050
And if you need a little help in
1236
00:50:29,050 --> 00:50:31,310
that process, that's that's what we do.
1237
00:50:31,410 --> 00:50:32,390
That's our here.
1238
00:50:32,510 --> 00:50:34,730
So let us let us know if we
1239
00:50:34,730 --> 00:50:35,870
can be a help to you in your
1240
00:50:35,870 --> 00:50:37,570
financial planning and portfolio management.
1241
00:50:38,330 --> 00:50:40,370
And then thanks for listening.
1242
00:50:40,550 --> 00:50:43,130
And until next time, everybody keeps striving for
1243
00:50:43,130 --> 00:50:43,770
something more.
1244
00:50:45,190 --> 00:50:46,950
Thank you for listening to something more with
1245
00:50:46,950 --> 00:50:47,690
Chris Boyd.
1246
00:50:47,970 --> 00:50:50,130
Call us for help, whether it's for financial
1247
00:50:50,130 --> 00:50:54,070
planning or portfolio management, insurance concerns or those
1248
00:50:54,070 --> 00:50:56,110
quality of life issues that make the money
1249
00:50:56,110 --> 00:50:57,190
matters matter.
1250
00:50:57,530 --> 00:50:58,550
Whatever's on your mind.
1251
00:50:58,670 --> 00:51:00,790
Visit us at something more with Chris Boyd
1252
00:51:00,790 --> 00:51:03,530
dot com or call us toll free at
1253
00:51:03,530 --> 00:51:06,650
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1254
00:51:06,650 --> 00:51:07,670
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1255
00:51:07,890 --> 00:51:10,230
Or send us your questions to A.M.
1256
00:51:10,370 --> 00:51:13,510
R dash info at Wealth Enhancement dot com.
1257
00:51:13,950 --> 00:51:15,630
You're listening to something more with Chris Boyd
1258
00:51:15,630 --> 00:51:18,250
Financial Talk Show Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services and
1259
00:51:18,250 --> 00:51:20,390
Jay Christopher Boyd provide investment advice on an
1260
00:51:20,390 --> 00:51:21,710
individual basis to clients.
1261
00:51:21,750 --> 00:51:23,850
Only proper advice depends on a complete analysis
1262
00:51:23,850 --> 00:51:25,270
of all facts and circumstances.
1263
00:51:25,270 --> 00:51:27,370
The information given on this program is general
1264
00:51:27,370 --> 00:51:29,410
financial comments and cannot be relied upon as
1265
00:51:29,410 --> 00:51:31,050
pertaining to your specific situation.
1266
00:51:31,190 --> 00:51:33,170
Wealth Enhancement Group cannot guarantee that using the
1267
00:51:33,170 --> 00:51:35,170
information from this show will generate profits or
1268
00:51:35,170 --> 00:51:36,290
ensure freedom from loss.
1269
00:51:36,490 --> 00:51:38,650
Listeners should consult their own financial advisors or
1270
00:51:38,650 --> 00:51:40,750
conduct their own due diligence before making any
1271
00:51:40,750 --> 00:51:41,510
financial decisions.
