Trump’s Taxes, Tariffs, Immigration & the Market

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Welcome to something more with Chris Boyd.

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Chris Boyd is a certified financial planner, practitioner,

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and senior vice president, financial advisor at Wealth

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Enhancement Group, one of the nation's largest registered

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investment advisors.

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We call it something more because we'd like

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to talk not only about those important dollar

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and cents issues, but also the quality of

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life issues that make the money matters matter.

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Here he is your fulfillment facilitator, your partner

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in prosperity, advising clients on Cape Cod and

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across the country.

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Here's your host, Jay Christopher Boyd.

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Thanks for being with us for an episode

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of something more with Chris Boyd.

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I'm here with Jeff Perry and Russ Ball,

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both from our team, the AMR team at

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Wealth Enhancement Group.

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And today we're talking a little bit about

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what the new administration taking office momentarily.

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We're, we're talking about what some of the

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Trump anticipated or discussed topics when it comes

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to taxes, tariffs, immigration policy, and so on

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and so forth.

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We're going to talk a little bit about

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that.

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And I get this asked a lot from

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clients and who come in to the office

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inquiring, what's your take?

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You know, how should we be thinking about

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some of these issues when it comes to

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the markets and you know, just positioning of

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portfolios and so forth.

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So I thought that would be a fun

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topic for us to talk about before we

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got even started, Jeff's got me all riled

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up, ready to jump on all these topics

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and get fired up for our conversation.

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I think you were riled up before we

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started talking out there.

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I think you came in, I think you

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came in this morning, ready, looking for a

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fight, quite frankly.

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Loaded for bear, huh?

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Is that what it is?

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All right.

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I don't know, but it's passion.

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That's what it is.

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So let me start off with a few

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things and then we'll dive in.

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Okay.

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So, you know, I think big picture I've

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been, when I've asked, been asked this, I've

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been saying that, you know, overall right now,

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the economy is pretty good.

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Yeah.

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You know, general, general strength.

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Um, when we think about, uh, the, uh,

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uh, new administration, the expectation is that tax,

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lower tax rates that we have under the

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tax cut and jobs act, which has a

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lower rate of tax for corporations and, uh,

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it's a lower income tax rates, uh, that

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take longer to get into the next rate.

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So, and a higher standard deduction.

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So generally, I know this isn't always the

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way people talk about it, but in most

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instances, people pay less tax income taxation, um,

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across the board.

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So, um, that would be beneficial in that

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consumers keep more money to spend and, uh,

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corporate, uh, or, you know, earnings there's less

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taxation.

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Therefore, there's more going into either the, the

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shareholders get more of a profit or they're

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going back into research and development or whatever,

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maybe.

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So that that's generally on the plus side.

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I think additionally, uh, you'd argue from a

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business point of view, from a profitability point

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of view, the expectation of a less burdensome

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regulatory policy, uh, we can debate whether that's

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good long-term policy or not, but from

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a profitability point of view, you'd expect that

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to be on the plus side for, uh,

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markets and for shareholders, for businesses to do

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well when it comes to, um, on the

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other side of the, you'd expect the possibility

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of tariffs being, and I only want to

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talk about this in a little more detail

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in just a minute, but you'd expect that

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to be on the negative side.

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Cause that's an added cost.

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It's a drain, uh, on the economy.

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Then you'd have, uh, the question of, uh,

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deportation.

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Uh, you know, there's been a strong, uh,

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argument for stronger order control.

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I think also, I don't think there's a

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lot of people opposed to that personally, but,

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um, the issue then becomes, uh, what do

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you do with the people who are here

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illegally?

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Uh, I expect there'll be some sort of

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a big show of some deportation, but I

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think that the idea of mass deportation becomes

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really impractical and challenging.

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So it's, again, there's all these things that

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were, uh, markets, I think are making assumptions,

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how much is rhetoric, how much is positioning

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and what's actually going to be implemented is

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to be determined, right, to be seen.

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But in the meantime, generally, uh, I think

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the market expects that there's some of these

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things, but not everything that's been talked about,

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uh, in, on the campaign trail.

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And so I think the market seems to

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be responding, saying all the good stuff mostly,

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and not, not so much about the worry

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stuff.

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Uh, so in any case, uh, that's sort

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of where I've been trying to set up

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the positioning of when talking with clients about

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here, here's what it looks like, but we

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have to be watchful of what happens and

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how this will affect the economy.

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Let's start with the topic of tariffs, because

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we were talking a little bit about that

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before the show started.

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And I think it's really important that we

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understand essentially how a tariff works.

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So, uh, essentially my understanding is if a,

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uh, tariff is applied to, let's say China,

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we're going to apply, uh, you know, 10

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to 60% on the goods from China.

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Well, the president's, the president Trump has been

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very clear on that, that where the starting

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point with China is 10%.

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So these are, this is what's been threatened,

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I think through the campaign rhetoric, right?

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Right, right.

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And he, you know, last week he kind

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of doubled down on that.

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Let's just assume some element of tariff goes

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up on Chinese goods, right?

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Yep.

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Now, um, that means that the importer, the

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company trying to import those goods has to

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pay more for those goods.

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That means the U S consumer who's going

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to buy those goods from that importer, whether

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it's because that then it turns into a

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product or because it is the product either

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way, right?

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Somehow that cost gets passed on to the

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U S consumer.

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That's a tax.

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That's an tax increase.

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It's not necessarily called a tax increase, but

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it's effectively a tax increase.

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Now, the reason for it is to try

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to dissuade the buyer from using that product

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that is made in this particular instance, China.

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So to find alternative, uh, sources of products,

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right?

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Um, now, but ultimately let's not, let's be

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clear.

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It's not China who pays that tariff.

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It's the U S importer or the U

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S consumer that pays for that tax, that

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costs that disincentive.

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Um, so that means there's less generally Jeff.

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I know you're not a fan of taxes,

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right?

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More taxes generally thinks it's a slowing economic

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impact, not generally a favorable, uh, position to

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have.

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So, I mean, that being said, we do

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have a pretty big deficit.

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So maybe there's some favorability.

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The reality though, just as an aside is,

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um, we've seen this in the past.

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This is not a new playbook.

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What happens when one country increases tariffs on

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another country?

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The other country says, well, I'm not going

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to take that.

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I'm raising tariffs on you on something else.

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So if you're going to try to import

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here, we're going to have some, uh, in

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cost on you, or as we saw, we're

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going to boycott some of your product, uh,

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when it came to farmers or something like,

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you know, different, uh, goods of one type

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or another resource resources that we export.

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So, um, it's not without consequence and it

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has, uh, generally an effect where, uh, it's

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inflationary costs.

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Just go up, um, on both sides of

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the, the trade arrangement.

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So in any case, and that affects, yeah,

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you know, that's one of the things that,

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uh, the Trump administration in the past has

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been kind of obsessed about is the idea

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of our, uh, trade imbalance.

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Well, this doesn't help a trade imbalance.

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If you start, um, it can, it can

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help.

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It can create a disincentive for people to

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import our goods.

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So we have less exports going out.

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And I guess that's a, you know, it's

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an individual question country by country.

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And, you know, I hope that president Trump

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treats it as an individual question.

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You know, you can make this, you can

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make the arguments that there's other reasons besides

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tax income.

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And that's the, that's the reason for tariffs.

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You alluded to that, Chris, it's a, it's

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an income generating thing, right?

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Revenue in for the government, right?

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That's right.

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It also, if there's an unfair trade, not

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just balance, not just looking at, you know,

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imports versus exports, but import, uh, prices and

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export prices, but looking at fair trade or

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whether or not there's, um, criminal activity or

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improper activity going on between the partners, so

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it can be, it can be, uh, can

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be punitive, can be sending a message.

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Like if you're going to, if you're going

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to steal our trade secrets, if you're going

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to have slave labor, if you're going to

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have this and that totally agree with your

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point, um, that doesn't seem to be the

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case when we talk about China and Mexico

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and, you know, essentially all of these other

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places that tariffs have been threatened as well.

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I don't, I don't know if I a

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hundred percent agree with that.

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He, it, I think it may be implied

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because those countries both have things that are

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not doing, you know, different things that those

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countries are not doing that the United States

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want them to do, but you know, we

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could debate that and whether or not it's

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in the motive of the president and his

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administration to be part of that.

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I can see, I'm not clear.

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I'd be curious in the case of Canada,

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for example, what are you writing?

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I didn't put Canada in there.

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I said, China and Mexico.

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Okay.

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I Canada and Mexico.

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I meant to say when I said, uh,

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you know, Canada is another one where we've

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had this threat.

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I think we're trying to make Canada the

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51st state or something.

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I'm not sure what's going on up there.

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But for, for, for Mexico and China, I

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think there's reasons to put pressure on their

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countries to get them to do things that

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we want them to do.

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And it's also a way aside from taxes

268
00:11:10,150 --> 00:11:12,310
and aside from political pressure, it's also a

269
00:11:12,310 --> 00:11:15,870
way to protect protectionism, which is certainly a

270
00:11:15,870 --> 00:11:18,310
word that can be used under the, um,

271
00:11:18,510 --> 00:11:19,170
Trump doctrine.

272
00:11:19,170 --> 00:11:21,230
If you want to say that, um, to

273
00:11:21,230 --> 00:11:25,110
protect certain American businesses from unfair trade practices,

274
00:11:25,430 --> 00:11:28,310
um, across the globe, if you will, but

275
00:11:28,310 --> 00:11:31,650
China and Mexico and to protect American companies

276
00:11:31,650 --> 00:11:33,050
who are competing in those sectors.

277
00:11:33,410 --> 00:11:36,070
So I think there's a lot of things

278
00:11:36,070 --> 00:11:40,210
other than just, you know, the simple way

279
00:11:40,210 --> 00:11:42,450
to look at why we're doing tariffs to

280
00:11:42,450 --> 00:11:44,030
punish our enemies, if you will.

281
00:11:44,330 --> 00:11:46,470
I think there's other economic reasons to do

282
00:11:46,470 --> 00:11:46,730
them.

283
00:11:46,790 --> 00:11:49,090
And I just hope it's not broad based.

284
00:11:49,090 --> 00:11:52,390
The thing I liked least about some of

285
00:11:52,390 --> 00:11:56,930
the president, president Trump's proposals, um, was tariffs.

286
00:11:56,950 --> 00:11:58,070
I'm not in favor of tariffs.

287
00:11:58,130 --> 00:12:00,230
Generally, I think they have a place, but

288
00:12:00,230 --> 00:12:02,190
I certainly don't think they have a uniform

289
00:12:02,190 --> 00:12:05,710
place to say 25% for a whole,

290
00:12:06,090 --> 00:12:07,590
everything coming in from a country.

291
00:12:07,590 --> 00:12:09,910
I think if they're targeted, if they have

292
00:12:09,910 --> 00:12:13,650
a clear economic and political message, then they

293
00:12:13,650 --> 00:12:14,390
can be effective.

294
00:12:14,950 --> 00:12:15,050
Yeah.

295
00:12:15,050 --> 00:12:16,290
And I think, you know, we've seen this

296
00:12:16,290 --> 00:12:20,210
whole question of, uh, technology, um, you know,

297
00:12:20,390 --> 00:12:24,590
the essentially, uh, whether things are being treated,

298
00:12:24,590 --> 00:12:30,190
uh, properly and fairly with the, uh, essentially

299
00:12:30,190 --> 00:12:36,900
stealing technological, uh, thought we thought, you know,

300
00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:42,040
uh, trades, whatever it is that, that, that

301
00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,680
seems reasonable to me to say, Hey, wait

302
00:12:44,680 --> 00:12:45,020
a second.

303
00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:47,460
Um, I mean, that kind of leads us

304
00:12:47,460 --> 00:12:49,140
to, uh, one of the other things you,

305
00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:50,860
you had brought up Jeff before we got

306
00:12:50,860 --> 00:12:52,900
started was the whole tick tock topic.

307
00:12:53,100 --> 00:12:53,680
All right.

308
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:55,320
That's, that's, that's one of those going to

309
00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:57,660
be the, uh, hot news right after the

310
00:12:57,660 --> 00:12:58,720
inauguration here.

311
00:12:59,140 --> 00:13:01,320
Um, as we know, when we're recording this,

312
00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,680
the Supreme court is, has a case before

313
00:13:03,680 --> 00:13:06,160
them, there have an appeal from tick tock

314
00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:09,940
to stay the, the elimination basically of tick

315
00:13:09,940 --> 00:13:10,200
tock.

316
00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:12,640
Congress passed a law, president Biden signed the

317
00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:14,660
law, which would ban tick tock from the

318
00:13:14,660 --> 00:13:15,300
United States.

319
00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,340
The Supreme court could put that law on

320
00:13:18,340 --> 00:13:21,560
a pause, you know, paste facing further review.

321
00:13:21,700 --> 00:13:23,100
Um, they may or they may not.

322
00:13:23,380 --> 00:13:25,380
And if they don't, by the time the

323
00:13:25,380 --> 00:13:28,620
president takes the oath of office, tick tock

324
00:13:28,620 --> 00:13:31,140
in essence will be gone from the United

325
00:13:31,140 --> 00:13:34,080
States, unless they make some deal with there's

326
00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:35,940
been rumors of deals, you know, part of

327
00:13:35,940 --> 00:13:39,860
the, um, legislation was that tick tock could

328
00:13:39,860 --> 00:13:42,440
divest himself of Chinese interest and sell it

329
00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:43,520
to an American entity.

330
00:13:44,100 --> 00:13:45,720
And tick tock could survive.

331
00:13:46,060 --> 00:13:47,840
So at the time of the recording here,

332
00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:50,900
there's no deal sealed, but that could happen

333
00:13:50,900 --> 00:13:51,400
as well.

334
00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:54,540
Um, and then there's some rest.

335
00:13:54,620 --> 00:13:56,300
We were talking about before the show, there's

336
00:13:56,300 --> 00:13:58,860
some kind of political news about tick tock

337
00:13:58,860 --> 00:14:00,600
as well about who might be sitting behind

338
00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:01,080
the president.

339
00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:01,380
Right.

340
00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:02,860
Yeah.

341
00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,900
So the, uh, CEO of tick tock is,

342
00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,760
uh, in front of Congress and all these

343
00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:10,580
hearings, uh, over the past couple of years,

344
00:14:10,580 --> 00:14:12,480
um, is going to be joining for the

345
00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,020
inauguration and sitting in a, in a seat

346
00:14:15,020 --> 00:14:17,980
of honor, uh, behind, uh, the incoming president.

347
00:14:18,060 --> 00:14:20,640
So, uh, a little bit of, uh, interesting

348
00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:21,500
dynamics there.

349
00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:22,260
Yeah.

350
00:14:22,540 --> 00:14:22,920
Okay.

351
00:14:22,980 --> 00:14:25,020
And it feels like it's a political message,

352
00:14:25,020 --> 00:14:25,320
right?

353
00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:27,880
I mean, president Trump's been saying that he's,

354
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,660
he, he, he, and in essence asked the

355
00:14:30,660 --> 00:14:32,560
Supreme court to stay the decision so he

356
00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,400
could try to make a deal, right, instead

357
00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,280
of tick tock being banned, which is kind

358
00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:39,260
of a change in his position from what

359
00:14:39,260 --> 00:14:40,760
a couple of years ago, he had a

360
00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:42,540
lot of a very different kind of rhetoric

361
00:14:42,540 --> 00:14:44,260
around this, he did.

362
00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:46,880
And I think that his, uh, his, his

363
00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:48,600
win, he, you know, he said tick tock

364
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:51,180
was, was useful in the campaign process.

365
00:14:51,340 --> 00:14:53,160
And I think he, uh, it kind of

366
00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:55,440
changed his tune around, uh, tick tock.

367
00:14:55,500 --> 00:14:59,080
It's really put, uh, Republicans in a odd

368
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:01,800
spot because most Republicans, I don't know if

369
00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,360
it was all, but most Republican legislators, it

370
00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:04,900
was not all.

371
00:15:04,980 --> 00:15:06,820
There were a few that voted against the

372
00:15:06,820 --> 00:15:09,540
bill, but most Republican senators and reps voted

373
00:15:09,540 --> 00:15:10,920
to ban tick tock.

374
00:15:11,750 --> 00:15:13,920
So now they're having to answer that question

375
00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,400
of what do you think about president's Trump's

376
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:17,300
change of opinion?

377
00:15:19,180 --> 00:15:21,840
Um, just as an aside, uh, what, where

378
00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:23,180
do you, what are your thoughts around this,

379
00:15:23,340 --> 00:15:26,380
uh, this notion of that, uh, this creates

380
00:15:26,380 --> 00:15:29,560
the potential for some threat to the U

381
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,880
S um, national security.

382
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,900
I thought the bill was fairly balanced, balanced

383
00:15:36,900 --> 00:15:41,620
national security, uh, interest, uh, concerns about issues

384
00:15:41,620 --> 00:15:45,020
with, uh, personal information and certain content getting

385
00:15:45,020 --> 00:15:46,080
to children.

386
00:15:46,300 --> 00:15:49,080
Um, but it didn't, uh, it didn't say

387
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:50,880
this has to be banned.

388
00:15:50,900 --> 00:15:53,120
It sets some reasonable conditions to address those

389
00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:54,300
specific concerns.

390
00:15:54,940 --> 00:15:57,180
And the Supreme court basically agreed with that

391
00:15:57,180 --> 00:15:59,940
part of that the bill was, was constitutional.

392
00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,360
So I thought it was a balanced bill.

393
00:16:02,740 --> 00:16:05,740
And the most plausible is to, uh, have

394
00:16:05,740 --> 00:16:06,260
it sold.

395
00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:06,640
Right.

396
00:16:07,020 --> 00:16:07,760
That's right.

397
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:13,140
Um, the concern is that the current arrangement

398
00:16:13,140 --> 00:16:16,220
has ties to the Chinese government and that

399
00:16:16,220 --> 00:16:19,520
could, that could be used in an adversarial

400
00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:19,820
way.

401
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:20,480
That's right.

402
00:16:21,060 --> 00:16:22,420
And I think that's legitimate.

403
00:16:22,660 --> 00:16:25,040
I think as the world turns more and

404
00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:28,760
more to everything being online and the use

405
00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:32,260
of AI and the way, you know, communication

406
00:16:32,260 --> 00:16:35,560
and false communication and manipulative communication has been

407
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,960
in existence between adversaries from planes dropping leaflets,

408
00:16:39,580 --> 00:16:41,940
you know, till now it's all in our

409
00:16:41,940 --> 00:16:44,880
television and such and radio, right?

410
00:16:44,980 --> 00:16:45,580
That's right, Chris.

411
00:16:46,620 --> 00:16:48,400
So we do have to be aware of

412
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:49,880
it and we do have to be vigilant

413
00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:55,120
to protect our military and social and I

414
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:56,740
mean, I think it's going to create a

415
00:16:56,740 --> 00:16:58,340
little bit of an uproar if they actually

416
00:16:58,340 --> 00:16:59,340
have to close it down.

417
00:16:59,460 --> 00:17:01,100
I think they're trying to, I think that's

418
00:17:01,100 --> 00:17:04,280
the position that seems to be put forth

419
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:05,579
right now is we're not going to sell,

420
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:07,180
therefore they're going to create a lot of

421
00:17:07,180 --> 00:17:12,319
angst among American users of TikTok with the

422
00:17:12,319 --> 00:17:14,560
frustration of that and then, so there'd be

423
00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:18,319
some kind of backlash and the expectation that

424
00:17:18,319 --> 00:17:22,700
it would therefore be reversed, but, and I

425
00:17:22,700 --> 00:17:22,920
don't know.

426
00:17:23,020 --> 00:17:25,740
President Trump cannot reverse it, no, it's law,

427
00:17:25,859 --> 00:17:28,320
so it would take an additional act from

428
00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:32,440
Congress and that would mean something that legislators

429
00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:34,300
do not like to do is to change

430
00:17:34,300 --> 00:17:34,820
their vote.

431
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:36,060
Yeah, reverse themselves.

432
00:17:36,060 --> 00:17:38,820
In the matter of a year, it would

433
00:17:38,820 --> 00:17:40,360
be less than a year that they'd be

434
00:17:40,360 --> 00:17:42,720
saying, oops, I changed my mind.

435
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:44,260
So, well, you know, the way it would

436
00:17:44,260 --> 00:17:45,880
happen is it gets slid in with something

437
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:46,600
else, right?

438
00:17:47,500 --> 00:17:49,560
It could, but I think, I think I

439
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,220
really liked this one, but I just had

440
00:17:51,220 --> 00:17:54,200
to go along with it, you know, I

441
00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:56,620
guess, I guess, I mean, honestly, I hope

442
00:17:56,620 --> 00:17:59,080
it's, it's like, they take the position of

443
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:00,760
like, these are your options.

444
00:18:00,940 --> 00:18:02,160
You know, A or B, what do you

445
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:02,500
want to do?

446
00:18:02,500 --> 00:18:04,560
If I was a member of Congress or

447
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:08,360
the Senate, I would not change my vote.

448
00:18:08,460 --> 00:18:09,860
If I was that convinced that it was

449
00:18:09,860 --> 00:18:11,480
a national security threat, I think it would

450
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,160
be very hypocritical to say now it's not,

451
00:18:14,500 --> 00:18:16,240
unless, unless they came up with some new

452
00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,320
arrangement on how the data is stored and

453
00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:19,660
such, you know.

454
00:18:19,860 --> 00:18:21,600
All right, let's, let's move on from TikTok,

455
00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,520
although it's an interesting topic, let's, let's talk

456
00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:26,640
more about what are some of the things

457
00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:31,000
that are anticipated under the Trump administration that

458
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,640
people think could move markets or have economic

459
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,160
impact that ultimately would have some consequence.

460
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,100
So we talked briefly about tariffs, the idea

461
00:18:41,100 --> 00:18:44,320
that, I mean, I put this in the

462
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:45,560
negative column, personally.

463
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,900
I understand your point, Jeff, that sometimes there's

464
00:18:48,900 --> 00:18:50,000
like targeted reasons.

465
00:18:50,360 --> 00:18:52,680
It could definitely be a negative.

466
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,960
It's just broad-based, you know, punitive and

467
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,240
no real, no real logic.

468
00:18:59,260 --> 00:19:00,220
It's inflationary, I think.

469
00:19:00,300 --> 00:19:02,600
And I think it's likely to be retaliated

470
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:04,440
and therefore, you know, you get into this,

471
00:19:04,660 --> 00:19:08,780
like, everyone gets wet, you know what I

472
00:19:08,780 --> 00:19:08,940
mean?

473
00:19:08,980 --> 00:19:11,480
It's not, not a great outcome.

474
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,480
Or it could be a great tool to

475
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:17,460
get our adversaries or countries that we want

476
00:19:17,460 --> 00:19:19,480
to do things to be more cooperative in

477
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,520
doing the things that protect America.

478
00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:22,300
Yeah.

479
00:19:22,360 --> 00:19:24,620
And I suppose if you're using it for

480
00:19:24,620 --> 00:19:29,680
not just purely in this realm of tariff

481
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:34,380
thought process, but other kinds of national security

482
00:19:34,380 --> 00:19:37,240
or, you know, leverage for one thing or

483
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,120
another, you know, there could be some virtue

484
00:19:39,120 --> 00:19:42,140
in that, how it applies.

485
00:19:42,260 --> 00:19:44,240
It does seem right now that, you know,

486
00:19:44,260 --> 00:19:46,760
when it comes to China, they're in an

487
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:51,760
economic less leverage and, you know, coming from

488
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:53,500
less from a position of strength than they

489
00:19:53,500 --> 00:19:54,540
might have at other times.

490
00:19:54,780 --> 00:19:55,700
China is, yeah.

491
00:19:55,980 --> 00:19:56,080
China.

492
00:19:56,300 --> 00:19:56,480
Yeah.

493
00:19:56,540 --> 00:19:58,840
So, so you do probably have the opportunity

494
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:00,940
to use something like this for leverage and

495
00:20:00,940 --> 00:20:04,680
other elements of your negotiations, perhaps.

496
00:20:05,120 --> 00:20:05,260
Yeah.

497
00:20:05,660 --> 00:20:07,780
So and with Trump, maybe that's the game

498
00:20:07,780 --> 00:20:08,060
plan.

499
00:20:08,120 --> 00:20:10,380
You know, he's all about the negotiations.

500
00:20:10,740 --> 00:20:11,160
Part of the deal.

501
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:11,960
Part of the deal.

502
00:20:12,100 --> 00:20:15,320
So, well, let's see what happens with tariffs.

503
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,500
How much is rhetoric and how much is

504
00:20:17,500 --> 00:20:20,160
actually going to be implemented?

505
00:20:20,420 --> 00:20:22,780
I think that's rubber meets the road question.

506
00:20:22,980 --> 00:20:24,560
You know, how's this really play out?

507
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:26,480
And those are within his discretion.

508
00:20:26,860 --> 00:20:28,140
You know, most some of the things that

509
00:20:28,140 --> 00:20:30,700
we're talking about, TikTok and taxes, maybe we'll

510
00:20:30,700 --> 00:20:33,680
move on to taxes, but that those items

511
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,780
and most items, quite frankly, take the act

512
00:20:35,780 --> 00:20:36,400
of Congress.

513
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:37,620
Yeah, it's a good point.

514
00:20:37,860 --> 00:20:38,980
The tariffs do not.

515
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:42,260
It's it's within the purview of the executive

516
00:20:42,260 --> 00:20:42,800
branch.

517
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:43,800
Mm hmm.

518
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,740
And President Biden continued, you know, just yeah,

519
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,280
I know we're trying to get away from

520
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,220
tariffs, but he can some of these tariffs

521
00:20:50,220 --> 00:20:51,520
are in existence today.

522
00:20:53,020 --> 00:20:57,420
So, yeah, I mean, President Trump implemented tariffs

523
00:20:57,420 --> 00:20:58,320
on China originally.

524
00:20:58,520 --> 00:20:58,660
Right.

525
00:20:59,300 --> 00:21:03,160
And the Biden administration didn't change that at

526
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,440
all, which you would have thought, you know,

527
00:21:05,500 --> 00:21:05,700
just.

528
00:21:07,020 --> 00:21:08,720
Policy wise, they might have been in a

529
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,820
different perspective or whatever.

530
00:21:12,460 --> 00:21:16,580
But, you know, they really maintained the same

531
00:21:16,580 --> 00:21:19,480
same game plan would have been difficult for

532
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:20,860
President Biden to do so.

533
00:21:21,500 --> 00:21:23,460
The relationship with China has degraded.

534
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:24,740
In fact, you know, we had a period

535
00:21:24,740 --> 00:21:27,520
where we weren't even communicating with China, even

536
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,260
on the even on the secure military, military

537
00:21:30,260 --> 00:21:32,460
to military communication.

538
00:21:32,500 --> 00:21:34,400
So I think it would have been difficult

539
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,280
for him to ease up on China when

540
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,540
kind of the relationship was so bad.

541
00:21:40,540 --> 00:21:41,240
Yeah.

542
00:21:41,820 --> 00:21:42,340
Yeah.

543
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,940
So thinking about taxes, which is something our

544
00:21:45,940 --> 00:21:47,940
clients are asking us a lot to, you

545
00:21:47,940 --> 00:21:51,820
know, with will the twenty eighteen tax and

546
00:21:51,820 --> 00:21:55,280
jobs and jobs act right be extended?

547
00:21:55,860 --> 00:21:57,960
And if it is extended, does it look

548
00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:59,240
the same as it does today?

549
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,320
And of course, again, this is an element

550
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,580
of crystal ball gazing to know what will

551
00:22:05,580 --> 00:22:06,060
happen.

552
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,740
I think it is widely expected, though, that

553
00:22:08,740 --> 00:22:11,500
the the essence of the tax cut and

554
00:22:11,500 --> 00:22:13,280
jobs act, which is, you know, some of

555
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,820
these key parts of it would be extended.

556
00:22:17,940 --> 00:22:20,860
Now, you know, that's again, it's a tight

557
00:22:20,860 --> 00:22:21,440
Congress.

558
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,700
And as much as it is Republican leadership

559
00:22:25,700 --> 00:22:29,620
presently when it comes to both houses of

560
00:22:29,620 --> 00:22:32,480
Congress, it's pretty thin majorities.

561
00:22:33,020 --> 00:22:35,120
And it might might not be as easy

562
00:22:35,120 --> 00:22:38,240
as we, you know, just on its face

563
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:39,300
what we might expect.

564
00:22:39,460 --> 00:22:43,880
But I would say, I think that there's,

565
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:47,800
you know, hope, expectation that just the current

566
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:49,200
status quo gets extended.

567
00:22:49,360 --> 00:22:52,720
Now, the problem, of course, is we continue

568
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,320
to be operating at a pretty big deficit.

569
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,380
And, you know, one point nine trillion, I

570
00:22:58,380 --> 00:23:01,740
think we said previously, that was last year's

571
00:23:01,740 --> 00:23:02,720
last fiscal year.

572
00:23:03,120 --> 00:23:04,820
We still don't have any kind of budget

573
00:23:04,820 --> 00:23:05,440
for this year.

574
00:23:05,540 --> 00:23:07,280
We're operating on last year's.

575
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:08,380
Yeah, we're going to launch.

576
00:23:08,660 --> 00:23:08,760
Right.

577
00:23:09,060 --> 00:23:09,380
Right.

578
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,160
So, you know, and by then we're halfway

579
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,620
through, you know, the fiscal year.

580
00:23:14,700 --> 00:23:14,980
Right.

581
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,140
So you got to assume it's going to

582
00:23:17,140 --> 00:23:20,460
be something similar next year, you know, twenty

583
00:23:20,460 --> 00:23:22,420
twenty five rather, you know, this year.

584
00:23:22,420 --> 00:23:24,760
Not but there's no reason to really be

585
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:25,980
optimistic about it.

586
00:23:27,780 --> 00:23:31,160
So that leads us to this question of,

587
00:23:32,540 --> 00:23:34,980
you know, is it good policy from the

588
00:23:34,980 --> 00:23:40,300
point of view of the growth of our

589
00:23:40,300 --> 00:23:42,380
debt or, you know, that issue?

590
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,200
But from, you know, the idea that, oh,

591
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:49,340
there's less government burden, less there's more money

592
00:23:49,340 --> 00:23:51,060
in my pocket, I've got more money to

593
00:23:51,060 --> 00:23:51,300
spend.

594
00:23:51,300 --> 00:23:52,580
That's good for consumption.

595
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,000
We're a 70 percent consumer driven economy.

596
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,060
Well, by and by and large, that sounds

597
00:24:01,060 --> 00:24:03,960
like, you know, less lighter load on taxes

598
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:04,940
generally is good.

599
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:06,720
So kind of mindset.

600
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:10,880
My crystal balls has me thinking that to

601
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:16,640
get the tax cut bill passed again.

602
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:22,100
Yeah, this is in it's contrary to good

603
00:24:22,100 --> 00:24:24,020
government policy and how to do this.

604
00:24:24,100 --> 00:24:26,620
It's contrary to thinking about the debt.

605
00:24:26,740 --> 00:24:27,880
But this is what I think is going

606
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:28,280
to happen.

607
00:24:30,100 --> 00:24:34,740
Salt state and local taxes, which impact typically

608
00:24:34,740 --> 00:24:38,920
states that have high property taxes and high

609
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,840
state taxes, typically blue states, incidentally blue states,

610
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,440
California, New York, New Jersey, just Connecticut, maybe

611
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,460
just to name Massachusetts, I guess.

612
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:50,920
So to name some states.

613
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,380
So I think there's a lot of pressure

614
00:24:53,380 --> 00:24:59,880
from Republican members of Congress and certainly Democrat

615
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:02,960
members of Congress agree with eliminating salt.

616
00:25:03,620 --> 00:25:05,160
So if you have a bill to extend

617
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,840
the tax cuts for a period of time,

618
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:09,000
just to be clear.

619
00:25:09,380 --> 00:25:11,640
So for right now, there's a cap.

620
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,540
I think it's $10,000 of what you

621
00:25:15,540 --> 00:25:17,820
can deduct when you have these expenses that

622
00:25:17,820 --> 00:25:18,760
you were just talking about.

623
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:19,100
Yeah.

624
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:20,920
And for many people in those states, you

625
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,140
know, this their income tax and their property

626
00:25:24,140 --> 00:25:26,620
taxes are combined is over 10,000.

627
00:25:26,900 --> 00:25:28,820
Never mind if they have a second home

628
00:25:28,820 --> 00:25:30,960
or a high income or whatever.

629
00:25:31,180 --> 00:25:35,220
So state and local taxes, salt ends up

630
00:25:35,220 --> 00:25:38,200
being limited as to how much you can

631
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:38,680
deduct.

632
00:25:38,900 --> 00:25:39,160
Right.

633
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:40,120
Doesn't work too well.

634
00:25:40,700 --> 00:25:43,860
So if they eliminate salt, the salt provision,

635
00:25:44,120 --> 00:25:48,640
it delays the Republican members from those states.

636
00:25:48,900 --> 00:25:50,600
California and New York are really the only

637
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,740
ones that have many members of Congress.

638
00:25:53,100 --> 00:25:55,680
But it also makes it difficult for Democratic

639
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,800
members who have run on this issue.

640
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,000
And so I think that's one of the

641
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:03,900
things they'll do is, of course, that's bad

642
00:26:03,900 --> 00:26:05,540
for the national debt and deficit.

643
00:26:05,540 --> 00:26:06,340
Right.

644
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:11,020
But even even more disappointing, if you will,

645
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,980
for good government, lower taxes is good government.

646
00:26:14,980 --> 00:26:16,460
So I don't want to make it sound

647
00:26:16,460 --> 00:26:17,080
like it's not.

648
00:26:17,180 --> 00:26:20,580
But I think the tax bill, the border

649
00:26:20,580 --> 00:26:23,420
bill and some other types of bills are

650
00:26:23,420 --> 00:26:25,840
going to be in one bill that are

651
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:29,320
going to be released as this massive piece

652
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:33,920
of legislation, the Trump proposal, the Trump desires,

653
00:26:34,060 --> 00:26:34,240
right?

654
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,120
The things he ran on is going to

655
00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:40,440
be put together in one single bill, February

656
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,160
or March, and they're going to try to

657
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:43,960
get it done all at one time.

658
00:26:44,140 --> 00:26:45,480
So they're going to use all the pressure

659
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:49,180
of, you know, if you want better immigration,

660
00:26:49,300 --> 00:26:50,500
you have to vote for this bill.

661
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,300
If you want lower taxes, you have to

662
00:26:52,300 --> 00:26:53,040
vote for this bill.

663
00:26:53,120 --> 00:26:54,300
And if you don't vote for this bill,

664
00:26:54,300 --> 00:26:57,200
you're voting against all those good things.

665
00:26:57,420 --> 00:26:58,240
So we'll put the.

666
00:26:58,580 --> 00:26:59,680
Well, good luck with that one.

667
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,520
Number one, that's that's entirely hypocritical based on,

668
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,540
you know, if you remember, you have to

669
00:27:05,540 --> 00:27:07,820
pass it to read it kind of thing.

670
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,700
Single subject rule, all those things.

671
00:27:12,900 --> 00:27:15,800
It's but anyway, that's what my crystal ball

672
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,380
is telling me, it's probably the most plausible

673
00:27:18,380 --> 00:27:21,260
way that it would get past a number

674
00:27:21,260 --> 00:27:21,720
of things.

675
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,440
You know, it holds the Republicans in line

676
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,340
because if they don't vote for it.

677
00:27:27,180 --> 00:27:29,460
They're going to be voting if they vote,

678
00:27:29,540 --> 00:27:31,660
no, they're going to be voting no on

679
00:27:31,660 --> 00:27:34,120
immigration reform, they're going to be voting no

680
00:27:34,120 --> 00:27:37,600
on tax decrease and no on whatever else

681
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,600
is in there that is on the Republican

682
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,900
agenda now in the campaign trail, the president

683
00:27:43,900 --> 00:27:47,580
elect now probably on the day this airs,

684
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:52,460
the president talked about eliminating taxes on Social

685
00:27:52,460 --> 00:27:55,460
Security benefits, eliminating taxes on tips.

686
00:27:56,180 --> 00:27:58,380
I don't know if they're going to be

687
00:27:58,380 --> 00:27:58,600
in there.

688
00:27:58,700 --> 00:27:59,060
I don't know.

689
00:27:59,300 --> 00:28:01,900
I think that's going to be really hard

690
00:28:01,900 --> 00:28:03,800
to include all that stuff.

691
00:28:04,120 --> 00:28:08,340
But yeah, I'm sure that that'll be an

692
00:28:08,340 --> 00:28:09,960
effort to see what he can get in

693
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:10,180
there.

694
00:28:10,500 --> 00:28:12,100
Yeah, I think not at this point.

695
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,000
I think I think they won't formally take

696
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:15,760
it off the agenda.

697
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,380
But if they put too much of just

698
00:28:18,380 --> 00:28:21,280
try to extend what's there and then do

699
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:22,460
some immigration stuff.

700
00:28:22,460 --> 00:28:22,920
Yeah.

701
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,040
All right.

702
00:28:25,100 --> 00:28:27,700
So that and that leads to immigration with

703
00:28:27,700 --> 00:28:28,420
the topic.

704
00:28:28,820 --> 00:28:30,320
One is border control.

705
00:28:30,620 --> 00:28:32,380
I think there's no question we're going to

706
00:28:32,380 --> 00:28:36,500
see a more significant emphasis on border safety,

707
00:28:36,740 --> 00:28:39,880
border security, what that translates to in terms

708
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:47,280
of more infrastructure for the existing structure of

709
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,480
trying to do more legal immigration, the processing

710
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:54,600
of legal applications, which is a big delay.

711
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,840
I mean, it's a long, long delay for

712
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,820
people who are trying to pursue the immigration

713
00:29:00,820 --> 00:29:01,900
through the legal process.

714
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,180
The system is overwhelmed, obviously.

715
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:04,780
Yeah.

716
00:29:04,900 --> 00:29:07,360
So I think, you know, you need more

717
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,820
infrastructure there as part of the way, as

718
00:29:10,820 --> 00:29:11,620
part of the solution.

719
00:29:11,900 --> 00:29:15,800
But in addition to the security of, you

720
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,480
know, don't want people sneaking in.

721
00:29:18,900 --> 00:29:22,100
The the the bigger question, I guess, becomes

722
00:29:22,100 --> 00:29:24,820
what will really happen relative to the rhetoric

723
00:29:24,820 --> 00:29:27,040
around deportation?

724
00:29:28,020 --> 00:29:30,860
I think it's pretty clear if you listen

725
00:29:30,860 --> 00:29:33,840
to Horman, who's going to be President Trump's

726
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:37,240
border czar, if you will, and the president

727
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:41,280
himself recently, his tone on immigration has changed

728
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,060
from the campaign rhetoric a bit.

729
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:43,740
Yeah.

730
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,260
Being targeted against.

731
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,560
Criminal aliens, criminal people who are illegally or

732
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:53,340
here legally, but on a temporary basis, if

733
00:29:53,340 --> 00:29:55,260
they commit certain crimes, they had a big

734
00:29:55,260 --> 00:29:58,120
debate last week in Chicago where they tried

735
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:03,740
to the city council tried to void the

736
00:30:03,740 --> 00:30:07,280
previous law that Chicago wouldn't work with ICE.

737
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,820
And so this this discussion's happening around the

738
00:30:09,820 --> 00:30:10,160
country.

739
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,280
And I think that the first thing and

740
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:14,560
the first thing is so big that I

741
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:15,620
don't know if you get to the second

742
00:30:15,620 --> 00:30:17,920
thing of getting the people out of the

743
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,020
country who are committing crimes, harming children, you

744
00:30:21,020 --> 00:30:23,200
know, not being good citizens, if you will.

745
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,440
Yeah, I think there's enough work there to

746
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,360
keep everybody busy in the system busy.

747
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,320
On the other end of that spectrum, I

748
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:32,520
would think you'd have more political cover, more

749
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,960
support for that kind of thing to say,

750
00:30:35,060 --> 00:30:37,480
look, you know, these are people who are

751
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,160
putting our citizens at risk.

752
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:41,500
You know, that's one thing.

753
00:30:41,500 --> 00:30:43,800
And I think most people would say, OK,

754
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:44,960
yeah, I agree with that.

755
00:30:45,220 --> 00:30:46,660
That is the low hanging fruit in this.

756
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:48,780
Yeah, I mean, it's a term that we

757
00:30:48,780 --> 00:30:49,140
use.

758
00:30:51,300 --> 00:30:53,360
So that I think that's where that goes.

759
00:30:53,500 --> 00:30:54,680
And on the other end of the spectrum

760
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,520
are the dreamers and dreamers are defined as

761
00:30:57,520 --> 00:30:59,640
a minor that was taken into the country,

762
00:31:00,060 --> 00:31:02,480
not on their own, taking in either smuggled

763
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,240
in by a parent or, you know, across

764
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:05,120
the border with a parent.

765
00:31:05,260 --> 00:31:07,680
And the child, if you will, at the

766
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,700
time had no criminal intent, no intent at

767
00:31:10,700 --> 00:31:10,920
all.

768
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:12,860
They're just going where they're told to go.

769
00:31:13,340 --> 00:31:13,460
Yeah.

770
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,400
And they become part of the part of

771
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:17,920
their culture, their experience.

772
00:31:18,060 --> 00:31:20,920
They've been raised in this country, really have

773
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,260
no ties to anywhere else.

774
00:31:23,460 --> 00:31:24,060
They speak English.

775
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:25,200
They've attended school.

776
00:31:25,420 --> 00:31:26,960
They, you know, depending on how old they

777
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:28,580
are, I mean, some are in first grade

778
00:31:28,580 --> 00:31:30,640
now and some are 30 years old.

779
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:30,860
Right.

780
00:31:31,020 --> 00:31:31,180
So.

781
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:31,980
Right, right.

782
00:31:32,980 --> 00:31:36,620
And President Trump just last week made comments

783
00:31:36,620 --> 00:31:37,120
about that.

784
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:38,780
That was something that was on his agenda

785
00:31:38,780 --> 00:31:39,300
as well.

786
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:44,360
So those two things in the immigration debate

787
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,480
are the easy and right things to do.

788
00:31:49,300 --> 00:31:51,780
Deporting people who aren't supposed to be here,

789
00:31:51,860 --> 00:31:56,060
who are harmful to our society, criminals, let's

790
00:31:56,060 --> 00:31:56,640
work on that.

791
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:58,480
And the people who are.

792
00:31:59,420 --> 00:32:02,020
All but, you know, for that, they weren't

793
00:32:02,020 --> 00:32:04,200
born here, have been good American citizens, they

794
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:05,960
didn't violate a law intentionally.

795
00:32:06,580 --> 00:32:06,800
Yeah.

796
00:32:07,900 --> 00:32:09,320
I think that's where you start.

797
00:32:09,900 --> 00:32:11,460
I know there's a big middle there.

798
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:12,060
There's a lot.

799
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,020
No, but I think you're right that there's

800
00:32:14,020 --> 00:32:16,120
a lot of support around both ends of

801
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:16,800
that spectrum.

802
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:18,720
And why not do the things that most

803
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:22,460
Americans support makes our country safer and makes

804
00:32:22,460 --> 00:32:24,780
people make people have the legal ability to

805
00:32:24,780 --> 00:32:26,200
work and be good citizens?

806
00:32:27,580 --> 00:32:28,740
So I think, you know, when you talk

807
00:32:28,740 --> 00:32:30,900
about that and the economic consequence of that,

808
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,660
you think, OK, that that's that's palatable.

809
00:32:33,660 --> 00:32:36,400
It's not something that's going to be disruptive

810
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:37,620
to the economy.

811
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:41,140
The idea of deporting every person who's here

812
00:32:41,140 --> 00:32:46,200
illegally, though, you know, fair in some sense,

813
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,940
OK, it's, you know, it's, you know, violates

814
00:32:48,940 --> 00:32:50,920
the our laws.

815
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:52,220
You know, that that's one thing.

816
00:32:52,380 --> 00:32:52,500
But.

817
00:32:53,620 --> 00:32:57,260
As a practical reality, that becomes really disruptive

818
00:32:57,260 --> 00:33:01,160
to the economy and obviously these individuals.

819
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,620
But, you know, the the economy impact, we're

820
00:33:04,620 --> 00:33:05,840
already short of labor.

821
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,440
And if we then scoop out, you know,

822
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,080
I don't know how many million people that

823
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,780
is from 10 million, maybe 10 to 20,

824
00:33:14,860 --> 00:33:15,580
I think I've heard.

825
00:33:15,700 --> 00:33:15,860
Right.

826
00:33:16,420 --> 00:33:18,760
Anyway, whatever the number on it on purpose,

827
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:20,360
meaning.

828
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:22,000
Yeah, at least.

829
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:24,380
So you have this if you had this

830
00:33:24,380 --> 00:33:27,520
enormous and the logistics of that and the

831
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:31,360
cost of that and just the whole endeavor

832
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,820
would be so enormous.

833
00:33:34,300 --> 00:33:36,360
I think, you know, maybe there's an element

834
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:40,280
of, hey, we do some deportation and try

835
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,640
to encourage self-deportation, you know, that people

836
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:43,980
go, oh, they're cracking down.

837
00:33:44,060 --> 00:33:45,900
I better go home, you know, that kind

838
00:33:45,900 --> 00:33:46,200
of thing.

839
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,620
But by and large, I think, you know,

840
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,040
what we often forget is that we don't

841
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:55,180
we're not growing as a nation demographically by

842
00:33:55,180 --> 00:33:56,080
births.

843
00:33:56,740 --> 00:33:59,380
And for an economy to grow and expand,

844
00:33:59,860 --> 00:34:02,000
in our case, part of the way it's

845
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,800
grown and expanded historically has been because of

846
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:06,120
demographic considerations.

847
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:07,840
We've had more consumers.

848
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:13,360
You know, growing population, and we rely in

849
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,340
part on immigration for that.

850
00:34:15,460 --> 00:34:17,320
Now, we want that to be legal immigration.

851
00:34:17,659 --> 00:34:20,480
But the reality is, too, we do have

852
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,420
people here who spend money, who are consumers,

853
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,960
who are here as part of that group

854
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:28,400
that you're talking in the middle, right?

855
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:29,639
That's like, where do we go?

856
00:34:30,219 --> 00:34:32,860
So I just think there's likely to be

857
00:34:32,860 --> 00:34:34,840
a challenge for the economy in terms of

858
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:38,900
labor and in terms of the consumer impact.

859
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:44,100
It is an economic component as well as

860
00:34:44,100 --> 00:34:47,280
all these other dimensions of the issue.

861
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:49,400
And if you tried to do that first,

862
00:34:49,739 --> 00:34:52,219
you don't have the resources to do the

863
00:34:52,219 --> 00:34:53,280
other ends of the spectrum.

864
00:34:53,460 --> 00:34:53,980
Right.

865
00:34:54,460 --> 00:34:56,220
So and it's not going to work.

866
00:34:56,420 --> 00:34:58,800
So it just seems unlikely, I guess, is

867
00:34:58,800 --> 00:34:59,520
the expectation.

868
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:00,780
You're not going to have as much of

869
00:35:00,780 --> 00:35:01,040
that.

870
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:06,540
So I think most the market generally, I

871
00:35:06,540 --> 00:35:10,180
think, has dismissed some of that talk as

872
00:35:10,180 --> 00:35:14,620
not actually likely to happen and therefore less

873
00:35:14,620 --> 00:35:17,780
worrisome as an economic consequence and therefore how

874
00:35:17,780 --> 00:35:18,640
does it affect the markets?

875
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:20,440
I would agree with that.

876
00:35:20,580 --> 00:35:22,340
And Trump's going to be able to fulfill

877
00:35:22,340 --> 00:35:26,960
his broader promise if the border is actually

878
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,920
secure and he's decreasing the number of criminals

879
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,740
who happen to be illegal in the United

880
00:35:33,740 --> 00:35:34,140
States.

881
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,160
And there's a lot of news on that.

882
00:35:36,340 --> 00:35:38,160
And the Dreamer question is solved.

883
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,940
If those three things happened, I think he

884
00:35:40,940 --> 00:35:43,680
would deserve an A plus on his immigration

885
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,780
policy if those get done in four years.

886
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,620
What were some of the other topics that

887
00:35:49,620 --> 00:35:53,360
you thought would be relevant to discuss here,

888
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:53,880
Jeff?

889
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:55,860
Well, you touched on, you know, it's not

890
00:35:55,860 --> 00:35:58,460
a real exciting one, but it is impactful.

891
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,900
I think is the regulatory environment, you know,

892
00:36:00,900 --> 00:36:03,360
the rules and regulations that agencies make.

893
00:36:03,500 --> 00:36:08,260
Sometimes Congress passes broad, you know, inspiring laws

894
00:36:08,260 --> 00:36:10,100
that will do X, Y or Z and

895
00:36:10,100 --> 00:36:12,500
they leave it to the agencies to promulgate

896
00:36:12,500 --> 00:36:13,180
regulations.

897
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,720
And oftentimes it's a complaint of conservatives, including

898
00:36:16,720 --> 00:36:19,840
myself, that these regulatory agencies act beyond the

899
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,840
scope or, you know, or have broad powers

900
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:27,040
that are somewhat you question is this beyond

901
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:31,340
their legislative, beyond the intent of the legislation.

902
00:36:31,740 --> 00:36:34,020
You know, it comes up in all forms

903
00:36:34,020 --> 00:36:34,600
of businesses.

904
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:36,760
But some of the two industries that I

905
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:40,520
think the prognosticators are thinking will be beneficial,

906
00:36:40,860 --> 00:36:46,020
benefited by this less regulation or deregulation is

907
00:36:46,020 --> 00:36:47,960
energy, right?

908
00:36:48,380 --> 00:36:51,320
More energy development, more drilling, drill, baby drill.

909
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,880
And the finance industry, quite frankly, who is

910
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:59,580
a general consensus among Republicans that the financial

911
00:36:59,580 --> 00:37:02,800
industry has been overregulated by previous the previous

912
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:05,840
administration, the Biden administration.

913
00:37:06,540 --> 00:37:07,960
So I think it's interesting.

914
00:37:08,140 --> 00:37:09,660
I bet a lot of people would be

915
00:37:09,660 --> 00:37:11,940
surprised to know that we produce more oil

916
00:37:11,940 --> 00:37:17,180
than ever before, you know, that people think,

917
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,380
you know, drill, baby drill, that there's been

918
00:37:19,380 --> 00:37:24,000
some restraint because of public lands and things

919
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,580
like this that may be publicized.

920
00:37:26,720 --> 00:37:28,960
But when it comes to output, the U

921
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:32,080
.S. is doing a great deal of production.

922
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:39,420
We are a net exporter of energy when

923
00:37:39,420 --> 00:37:40,920
it comes to that kind of thing.

924
00:37:41,060 --> 00:37:45,680
So that this also ties into that question

925
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,320
of when you think about what will be

926
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:55,600
the impact of, say, a more liberal regulatory

927
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,280
policy in the case of energy, as an

928
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:02,320
example, you might expect energy stocks to do

929
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:02,860
better.

930
00:38:03,460 --> 00:38:06,240
When you look at the past Trump administration,

931
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:10,200
energy did not do as well under that

932
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,380
administration because the prices went down, I guess,

933
00:38:13,620 --> 00:38:17,600
and therefore the profitability was greater supply.

934
00:38:17,860 --> 00:38:20,260
And the opposite is true under the Biden

935
00:38:20,260 --> 00:38:20,560
administration.

936
00:38:20,720 --> 00:38:21,880
You'd have thought it would be the other

937
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:23,840
way around, that energy stocks wouldn't do as

938
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:24,040
well.

939
00:38:24,500 --> 00:38:25,480
It's just it's one of these things where

940
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:27,600
things don't always move the way you expect.

941
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,500
You can't look at it overly simply.

942
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:30,860
It's not as simplified as that.

943
00:38:31,100 --> 00:38:31,200
Yeah.

944
00:38:31,300 --> 00:38:33,920
So in any case, but yeah, I think

945
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:37,300
there is expectation that those are two examples.

946
00:38:37,780 --> 00:38:39,100
What was the second one that you mentioned,

947
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:39,560
by the way?

948
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:44,320
It was security, securities, financial, financial sector.

949
00:38:44,460 --> 00:38:44,560
Yeah.

950
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:48,600
And, you know, one of those instances, the

951
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:52,760
current SEC chair who will be is being

952
00:38:52,760 --> 00:39:00,760
replaced, has been pretty antagonistic toward cryptocurrency and,

953
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:09,560
you know, desiring to limit access or in

954
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,900
terms of products like ETFs and mutual funds,

955
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,260
they've been sort of guarded about this from

956
00:39:15,260 --> 00:39:18,760
the idea that this may not be always

957
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:20,560
something consumers understand.

958
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,560
And would it be in their best interest?

959
00:39:22,740 --> 00:39:23,500
You know, that kind of thing.

960
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:26,220
I think it's right, by the way, to

961
00:39:26,220 --> 00:39:28,400
go slow and make sure you don't just

962
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:28,980
jump in.

963
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:35,160
And I think that you're right, that Gensler

964
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:41,670
was really more of a challenging, trying to

965
00:39:41,670 --> 00:39:44,330
add some regulatory burden, trying to be more

966
00:39:44,330 --> 00:39:49,570
proactive in a consumer protection kind of mindset.

967
00:39:50,130 --> 00:39:53,230
But in any case, so we'll see what

968
00:39:53,230 --> 00:39:55,290
what that translates to.

969
00:39:55,610 --> 00:39:58,590
Well, the market certainly thinks it's, you know,

970
00:39:58,850 --> 00:40:01,390
Wild West is coming because its price has

971
00:40:01,390 --> 00:40:03,010
gone up substantially.

972
00:40:03,370 --> 00:40:06,970
Bitcoin people, there's lots of cryptocurrencies, but people,

973
00:40:07,370 --> 00:40:09,810
you know, casual viewer has heard of Bitcoin

974
00:40:09,810 --> 00:40:11,290
and maybe they follow the price a little

975
00:40:11,290 --> 00:40:11,550
bit.

976
00:40:12,310 --> 00:40:14,530
CNBC is flashing it every 30 seconds on

977
00:40:14,530 --> 00:40:14,930
the TV.

978
00:40:14,930 --> 00:40:20,330
So price of bitcoins, you know, when I'm

979
00:40:20,330 --> 00:40:22,390
talking today here, I think it was around

980
00:40:22,390 --> 00:40:25,710
$100,000 and that's up from the $70

981
00:40:25,710 --> 00:40:28,470
,000 range right before the election.

982
00:40:28,610 --> 00:40:29,930
And it had gone up before that in

983
00:40:29,930 --> 00:40:31,270
speculation that Trump could win.

984
00:40:31,850 --> 00:40:35,170
So it certainly thinks that Trump is going

985
00:40:35,170 --> 00:40:36,790
to be favorable to the industry.

986
00:40:37,910 --> 00:40:39,510
Yeah, I think that's very true.

987
00:40:39,930 --> 00:40:41,890
That's its own show.

988
00:40:41,890 --> 00:40:45,270
I mean, let's let's have more conversation about

989
00:40:45,270 --> 00:40:46,610
cryptocurrency.

990
00:40:47,050 --> 00:40:47,830
Sometimes a bubble.

991
00:40:48,070 --> 00:40:49,230
There you go.

992
00:40:50,550 --> 00:40:52,550
I think it's I think it's a topic

993
00:40:52,550 --> 00:40:56,150
that's worthy of more in-depth conversation.

994
00:40:57,270 --> 00:41:00,750
I've heard repeatedly on the campaign trail that

995
00:41:00,750 --> 00:41:02,590
we really don't need an education department.

996
00:41:03,230 --> 00:41:06,730
What are some other examples of deregulation that

997
00:41:06,730 --> 00:41:07,050
might?

998
00:41:09,070 --> 00:41:11,530
Well, energy department, I think, is in that

999
00:41:11,530 --> 00:41:14,490
same bucket of things that might disappear.

1000
00:41:15,530 --> 00:41:16,910
I'm not sure it's going to happen.

1001
00:41:17,150 --> 00:41:18,870
I don't know that it'll actually disappear in

1002
00:41:18,870 --> 00:41:19,950
any of these instances.

1003
00:41:20,310 --> 00:41:23,390
But, you know, what's the the idea that

1004
00:41:23,390 --> 00:41:25,850
government is an organism that doesn't like to

1005
00:41:25,850 --> 00:41:26,810
shrink or something?

1006
00:41:27,290 --> 00:41:29,610
Well, we have we have another I don't

1007
00:41:29,610 --> 00:41:29,830
know.

1008
00:41:29,930 --> 00:41:30,950
It's not an agency.

1009
00:41:30,950 --> 00:41:36,410
We have a group led by Ramaswamy and

1010
00:41:36,410 --> 00:41:39,490
Musk who are who are delegated with the

1011
00:41:39,490 --> 00:41:41,110
task of doing just that.

1012
00:41:42,450 --> 00:41:44,310
Doge, they call it, which is, you know,

1013
00:41:44,370 --> 00:41:45,610
I don't want to go back to cryptocurrency.

1014
00:41:46,210 --> 00:41:47,770
Yeah, it is the same.

1015
00:41:47,770 --> 00:41:50,610
I have a client who said, I'm going

1016
00:41:50,610 --> 00:41:52,450
to buy that just because I think there's

1017
00:41:52,450 --> 00:41:54,370
a lot of people because of this Doge

1018
00:41:54,370 --> 00:41:55,590
department that are going to.

1019
00:41:56,090 --> 00:41:57,190
Stranger things have happened, right?

1020
00:41:57,270 --> 00:41:57,650
Yeah.

1021
00:41:57,650 --> 00:41:58,030
Yeah.

1022
00:41:58,490 --> 00:42:00,270
And so far, it's worked to his advantage.

1023
00:42:00,270 --> 00:42:00,950
I don't know.

1024
00:42:01,130 --> 00:42:02,310
Remember the dotcom days?

1025
00:42:02,790 --> 00:42:05,770
Recently, Elon Musk was bringing down his estimate

1026
00:42:05,770 --> 00:42:07,210
for how much they're going to he's going

1027
00:42:07,210 --> 00:42:07,870
to be able to cut.

1028
00:42:07,930 --> 00:42:09,350
I think it went from two trillion to

1029
00:42:09,350 --> 00:42:09,870
one trillion.

1030
00:42:10,290 --> 00:42:13,130
Yeah, I mean, he's actually done some homework.

1031
00:42:13,150 --> 00:42:14,890
He realizes there's it's going to be harder

1032
00:42:14,890 --> 00:42:16,310
to do than he planned.

1033
00:42:16,430 --> 00:42:16,570
Right.

1034
00:42:17,410 --> 00:42:17,850
Yeah.

1035
00:42:18,630 --> 00:42:20,510
But, you know, I agree with you, Chris.

1036
00:42:20,530 --> 00:42:22,090
Government is ever expanding.

1037
00:42:22,330 --> 00:42:24,790
And, you know, that's it's a natural growth

1038
00:42:24,790 --> 00:42:28,250
of government where it's either under both parties.

1039
00:42:28,690 --> 00:42:28,790
Yeah.

1040
00:42:28,990 --> 00:42:32,170
I mean, conservatives, Republicans, we try to.

1041
00:42:33,390 --> 00:42:34,830
The rhetoric is we want it to be

1042
00:42:34,830 --> 00:42:37,630
small, but actually it's not made smaller when

1043
00:42:37,630 --> 00:42:38,850
we're in office, unfortunately.

1044
00:42:39,150 --> 00:42:42,150
But if it's ever going to happen, this

1045
00:42:42,150 --> 00:42:44,550
is the opportunity that it could happen because

1046
00:42:44,550 --> 00:42:47,850
you have a president who who campaigned on

1047
00:42:47,850 --> 00:42:47,990
it.

1048
00:42:48,070 --> 00:42:50,330
He created an entity to focus on it,

1049
00:42:50,590 --> 00:42:52,950
whether or not it can achieve the what

1050
00:42:52,950 --> 00:42:53,350
number.

1051
00:42:53,810 --> 00:42:54,050
Yeah.

1052
00:42:54,530 --> 00:42:57,470
And how much fraud, waste and abuse, you

1053
00:42:57,470 --> 00:42:58,790
know, that kind of thing that we always

1054
00:42:58,790 --> 00:43:01,590
talk about, how much really they can identify

1055
00:43:01,590 --> 00:43:03,450
and eliminate is.

1056
00:43:04,030 --> 00:43:06,350
It's there, whether or not they can identify

1057
00:43:06,350 --> 00:43:08,550
and eliminate it, but it is there.

1058
00:43:08,670 --> 00:43:10,030
And so I think that's going to be

1059
00:43:10,030 --> 00:43:12,630
one of the more entertaining aspects of this

1060
00:43:12,630 --> 00:43:15,630
next administration in a good way is when

1061
00:43:15,630 --> 00:43:19,410
they expose hopefully when they expose whatever they

1062
00:43:19,410 --> 00:43:19,990
find.

1063
00:43:20,230 --> 00:43:22,990
And there's a public debate of, you know,

1064
00:43:23,150 --> 00:43:24,030
for example.

1065
00:43:25,950 --> 00:43:28,030
Should we be paying hundreds of millions of

1066
00:43:28,030 --> 00:43:30,390
dollars to subsidize public radio today?

1067
00:43:31,030 --> 00:43:32,650
I think that's a good debate that the

1068
00:43:32,650 --> 00:43:34,650
country should have where we are in our

1069
00:43:34,650 --> 00:43:36,610
society and how we get information and the

1070
00:43:36,610 --> 00:43:39,770
resources available is certainly different than when this

1071
00:43:39,770 --> 00:43:40,150
started.

1072
00:43:40,990 --> 00:43:43,230
Should we be should we be doing that?

1073
00:43:43,290 --> 00:43:45,870
And I know everything I know when this

1074
00:43:45,870 --> 00:43:46,610
debate comes up.

1075
00:43:46,710 --> 00:43:48,430
Oh, it's only a very small part.

1076
00:43:48,430 --> 00:43:50,630
It won't mean anything to the national deficit.

1077
00:43:51,210 --> 00:43:51,310
No.

1078
00:43:51,390 --> 00:43:53,450
But when you have all of these things,

1079
00:43:53,650 --> 00:43:55,550
you know, assuming they find hundreds of things

1080
00:43:55,550 --> 00:43:57,450
like that, which I think they will, it

1081
00:43:57,450 --> 00:43:59,110
does add up to something and it does

1082
00:43:59,110 --> 00:43:59,490
matter.

1083
00:43:59,790 --> 00:44:03,470
So I look forward to that entity releasing

1084
00:44:03,470 --> 00:44:05,610
information and the public debate around it and

1085
00:44:05,610 --> 00:44:09,630
hopefully finding some things to reduce our burden.

1086
00:44:11,670 --> 00:44:15,450
I think one of the things that is

1087
00:44:15,450 --> 00:44:23,050
on undiscussed and maybe underestimated is the uncertainty

1088
00:44:23,050 --> 00:44:28,170
that comes with the Trump experience, right, that,

1089
00:44:28,270 --> 00:44:29,730
you know, there's a little bit of chaos

1090
00:44:29,730 --> 00:44:32,970
that surrounds Trump when it comes to his

1091
00:44:32,970 --> 00:44:34,050
management style.

1092
00:44:34,270 --> 00:44:35,750
There's no uncertainty there, Chris.

1093
00:44:36,110 --> 00:44:37,410
Yeah, it's going to be that.

1094
00:44:37,490 --> 00:44:39,450
I mean, that's just there's nothing new there.

1095
00:44:39,450 --> 00:44:42,670
And so my point is the market impact

1096
00:44:42,670 --> 00:44:44,610
that that can have is what I'm driving

1097
00:44:44,610 --> 00:44:47,110
at, you know, that we may have some

1098
00:44:47,110 --> 00:44:49,830
unanticipated moves just because of.

1099
00:44:51,070 --> 00:44:53,670
The way things are communicated, the.

1100
00:44:55,850 --> 00:44:59,850
The I think there's perpetually the notion that

1101
00:44:59,850 --> 00:45:02,210
there's I remember in the last administration, it

1102
00:45:02,210 --> 00:45:03,730
was drinking from a fire hose just trying

1103
00:45:03,730 --> 00:45:05,630
to keep up with what was being talked

1104
00:45:05,630 --> 00:45:07,590
about, what were some of the things being

1105
00:45:07,590 --> 00:45:09,310
attempted to be addressed?

1106
00:45:10,990 --> 00:45:13,230
And, you know, there is some sleight of

1107
00:45:13,230 --> 00:45:15,390
hand in the way that's dealt with where

1108
00:45:15,390 --> 00:45:17,310
we're looking over here, but there's something happening

1109
00:45:17,310 --> 00:45:17,850
over there.

1110
00:45:18,650 --> 00:45:21,050
And I think that's just an element that

1111
00:45:21,050 --> 00:45:22,290
we have to be mindful of.

1112
00:45:22,550 --> 00:45:27,330
There's other variables in terms of foreign interactions.

1113
00:45:27,330 --> 00:45:32,130
And what does that create for market?

1114
00:45:32,670 --> 00:45:34,530
You know, the last four years have been

1115
00:45:34,530 --> 00:45:35,190
full of them.

1116
00:45:35,330 --> 00:45:36,610
You know, we have a we had a

1117
00:45:36,610 --> 00:45:38,230
calm president, I'll give you that.

1118
00:45:38,230 --> 00:45:42,510
But we've had a increasing geopolitical scene.

1119
00:45:43,230 --> 00:45:45,550
So how does that play out over time?

1120
00:45:45,850 --> 00:45:48,350
It has the potential to get better.

1121
00:45:49,350 --> 00:45:50,570
Of course, it has the potential to get

1122
00:45:50,570 --> 00:45:50,830
worse.

1123
00:45:50,990 --> 00:45:52,930
I mean, I'm not saying it doesn't, but

1124
00:45:52,930 --> 00:45:57,110
I think having a strong president who.

1125
00:45:58,770 --> 00:46:01,250
Talks the talk of peace through strength and

1126
00:46:01,250 --> 00:46:04,050
in his first year, his first term certainly

1127
00:46:04,050 --> 00:46:06,990
exercised that, and we had more peace than

1128
00:46:06,990 --> 00:46:07,710
we have today.

1129
00:46:08,230 --> 00:46:09,970
I'm hopeful that that's a positive that we

1130
00:46:09,970 --> 00:46:11,670
see in all the noise.

1131
00:46:11,850 --> 00:46:13,570
I hope it's a positive element of it.

1132
00:46:14,970 --> 00:46:19,790
I think the the other variable that we

1133
00:46:19,790 --> 00:46:21,530
just will have to see how it plays

1134
00:46:21,530 --> 00:46:25,090
out is how well does Trump and the

1135
00:46:25,090 --> 00:46:26,250
Congress get along?

1136
00:46:27,010 --> 00:46:30,630
You know, will there be a collaborative effort

1137
00:46:30,630 --> 00:46:33,230
or will there be antagonism?

1138
00:46:34,810 --> 00:46:36,810
And I think the first day is the

1139
00:46:36,810 --> 00:46:37,270
best day.

1140
00:46:37,270 --> 00:46:40,410
That's why I think you're right.

1141
00:46:40,530 --> 00:46:43,210
That's why I think this bill that my

1142
00:46:43,210 --> 00:46:45,930
crystal ball, I refer to, is coming out

1143
00:46:45,930 --> 00:46:48,770
is is in recognition of let's get done

1144
00:46:48,770 --> 00:46:50,370
what we can get done, because.

1145
00:46:51,610 --> 00:46:53,190
You know, the closer we get to the

1146
00:46:53,190 --> 00:46:55,710
next election, I know it's two years away,

1147
00:46:55,790 --> 00:46:59,630
but the less likely members of Congress are

1148
00:46:59,630 --> 00:47:01,890
going to be willing to go along with

1149
00:47:01,890 --> 00:47:03,550
everything that they have to answer for.

1150
00:47:04,030 --> 00:47:08,450
Well, and I'm really concerned about March with

1151
00:47:08,450 --> 00:47:12,550
the debt ceiling and just how that plays

1152
00:47:12,550 --> 00:47:14,050
out and how that gets positioned.

1153
00:47:14,890 --> 00:47:17,550
You know, I just think there's a real

1154
00:47:17,550 --> 00:47:19,510
I don't know, I feel more worried about

1155
00:47:19,510 --> 00:47:21,170
it this time than in the past.

1156
00:47:21,590 --> 00:47:23,490
We may see the elimination of the debt

1157
00:47:23,490 --> 00:47:23,810
ceiling.

1158
00:47:24,410 --> 00:47:26,690
I think that would be a favorable thing.

1159
00:47:26,690 --> 00:47:28,610
And to deal with these issues on the

1160
00:47:28,610 --> 00:47:30,390
budget, that's where it belongs.

1161
00:47:30,510 --> 00:47:31,630
Where are we going to spend the money

1162
00:47:31,630 --> 00:47:32,110
or not?

1163
00:47:32,110 --> 00:47:33,290
Not at the time when we have to

1164
00:47:33,290 --> 00:47:34,630
pay the bill that we've already spent.

1165
00:47:35,570 --> 00:47:37,970
I think I think the idea of a

1166
00:47:37,970 --> 00:47:40,970
debt ceiling was it had merit, but I

1167
00:47:40,970 --> 00:47:41,950
don't think it's worked out.

1168
00:47:42,150 --> 00:47:44,130
It has obviously hasn't worked out because it

1169
00:47:44,130 --> 00:47:46,610
hasn't meant anything other than stress on the

1170
00:47:46,610 --> 00:47:48,270
system and fear in the market.

1171
00:47:48,510 --> 00:47:49,770
So it's a good point.

1172
00:47:49,930 --> 00:47:50,570
It's not serving.

1173
00:47:50,730 --> 00:47:51,770
It's not serving a purpose.

1174
00:47:51,850 --> 00:47:52,690
We need a better way.

1175
00:47:54,170 --> 00:47:55,670
Well, I don't know if there's anything else

1176
00:47:55,670 --> 00:47:56,570
you want to cover.

1177
00:47:56,670 --> 00:47:59,470
We covered a lot and we went a

1178
00:47:59,470 --> 00:48:00,630
little long, very long.

1179
00:48:00,630 --> 00:48:04,850
But it was it was entertaining to me.

1180
00:48:04,970 --> 00:48:06,130
I enjoyed the conversation.

1181
00:48:06,750 --> 00:48:09,810
Anything you want to add to something, Jeff,

1182
00:48:09,870 --> 00:48:11,230
that we didn't get to talk about?

1183
00:48:11,330 --> 00:48:14,470
No, just be positive and enjoy the next

1184
00:48:14,470 --> 00:48:16,150
four years of a wild ride.

1185
00:48:16,270 --> 00:48:17,070
Let's hope it's good.

1186
00:48:17,830 --> 00:48:19,670
Yeah, let me just mention that, look, you

1187
00:48:19,670 --> 00:48:22,610
know, as you're thinking about these issues, a

1188
00:48:22,610 --> 00:48:26,110
lot of times people will make the political,

1189
00:48:26,590 --> 00:48:30,490
the primary decision.

1190
00:48:30,490 --> 00:48:34,490
And factor in their portfolio and financial planning

1191
00:48:34,490 --> 00:48:37,510
considerations, we generally discourage that.

1192
00:48:37,690 --> 00:48:39,090
Let's say it's not relevant.

1193
00:48:39,210 --> 00:48:40,350
Let's not say it's not part of the

1194
00:48:40,350 --> 00:48:40,750
equation.

1195
00:48:42,430 --> 00:48:45,070
But, you know, we can be driven to

1196
00:48:45,070 --> 00:48:49,610
the extremes of, oh, I'm I'm out, you

1197
00:48:49,610 --> 00:48:53,090
know, the crazy town or I'm I'm out

1198
00:48:53,090 --> 00:48:54,770
when the other guys are in, you know,

1199
00:48:54,770 --> 00:48:57,130
like this notion of if it's not your

1200
00:48:57,130 --> 00:49:00,790
cup of tea for who's running, in this

1201
00:49:00,790 --> 00:49:03,830
case, the presidency or the Congress, you might

1202
00:49:03,830 --> 00:49:06,010
be inclined to say, oh, I want, you

1203
00:49:06,010 --> 00:49:07,110
know, it's bad or whatever.

1204
00:49:07,470 --> 00:49:08,710
Don't necessarily do that.

1205
00:49:08,770 --> 00:49:12,650
When you look back at various instances, I've

1206
00:49:12,650 --> 00:49:16,490
had clients who are Democrats and I've had

1207
00:49:16,490 --> 00:49:17,550
clients who are Republicans.

1208
00:49:18,650 --> 00:49:23,530
And we have probably have the same kind

1209
00:49:23,530 --> 00:49:26,070
of reaction when the other team wins.

1210
00:49:26,070 --> 00:49:27,590
It's just going to be a different group

1211
00:49:27,590 --> 00:49:29,170
of clients in the next four years than

1212
00:49:29,170 --> 00:49:30,690
it was in the previous four years.

1213
00:49:31,250 --> 00:49:33,190
And what ends up happening is when we

1214
00:49:33,190 --> 00:49:35,190
look back over a four year period.

1215
00:49:36,590 --> 00:49:41,070
Almost always markets are benefited from time and,

1216
00:49:41,170 --> 00:49:46,530
you know, increasing and profitability, so don't don't

1217
00:49:46,530 --> 00:49:47,230
overreact.

1218
00:49:47,550 --> 00:49:50,190
But if you have challenges, if you if

1219
00:49:50,190 --> 00:49:51,990
you're or you if you want to be

1220
00:49:51,990 --> 00:49:54,790
discussing, you can overreact on the other side

1221
00:49:54,790 --> 00:49:56,650
to taking more, you know, abundance of risk

1222
00:49:56,650 --> 00:49:58,470
because of your optimism or whatever.

1223
00:49:59,090 --> 00:50:01,990
When it comes to thinking about your portfolio

1224
00:50:01,990 --> 00:50:06,130
and you need a little bit of interaction

1225
00:50:06,130 --> 00:50:09,690
in that process, sometimes, you know, Jeff, when

1226
00:50:09,690 --> 00:50:11,490
you came in before you were part of

1227
00:50:11,490 --> 00:50:14,210
our team, you were looking for someone to

1228
00:50:14,210 --> 00:50:16,110
challenge your assumptions to right.

1229
00:50:16,350 --> 00:50:17,890
You know, I came in as a client

1230
00:50:17,890 --> 00:50:20,250
and saying, what am I missing?

1231
00:50:20,430 --> 00:50:22,430
Is there something I'm not seeing that, you

1232
00:50:22,430 --> 00:50:23,230
know, you might see?

1233
00:50:23,430 --> 00:50:26,550
Sometimes there's virtue in that getting a second

1234
00:50:26,550 --> 00:50:26,990
opinion.

1235
00:50:27,430 --> 00:50:29,050
And if you need a little help in

1236
00:50:29,050 --> 00:50:31,310
that process, that's that's what we do.

1237
00:50:31,410 --> 00:50:32,390
That's our here.

1238
00:50:32,510 --> 00:50:34,730
So let us let us know if we

1239
00:50:34,730 --> 00:50:35,870
can be a help to you in your

1240
00:50:35,870 --> 00:50:37,570
financial planning and portfolio management.

1241
00:50:38,330 --> 00:50:40,370
And then thanks for listening.

1242
00:50:40,550 --> 00:50:43,130
And until next time, everybody keeps striving for

1243
00:50:43,130 --> 00:50:43,770
something more.

1244
00:50:45,190 --> 00:50:46,950
Thank you for listening to something more with

1245
00:50:46,950 --> 00:50:47,690
Chris Boyd.

1246
00:50:47,970 --> 00:50:50,130
Call us for help, whether it's for financial

1247
00:50:50,130 --> 00:50:54,070
planning or portfolio management, insurance concerns or those

1248
00:50:54,070 --> 00:50:56,110
quality of life issues that make the money

1249
00:50:56,110 --> 00:50:57,190
matters matter.

1250
00:50:57,530 --> 00:50:58,550
Whatever's on your mind.

1251
00:50:58,670 --> 00:51:00,790
Visit us at something more with Chris Boyd

1252
00:51:00,790 --> 00:51:03,530
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1253
00:51:03,530 --> 00:51:06,650
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1254
00:51:06,650 --> 00:51:07,670
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1255
00:51:07,890 --> 00:51:10,230
Or send us your questions to A.M.

1256
00:51:10,370 --> 00:51:13,510
R dash info at Wealth Enhancement dot com.

1257
00:51:13,950 --> 00:51:15,630
You're listening to something more with Chris Boyd

1258
00:51:15,630 --> 00:51:18,250
Financial Talk Show Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services and

1259
00:51:18,250 --> 00:51:20,390
Jay Christopher Boyd provide investment advice on an

1260
00:51:20,390 --> 00:51:21,710
individual basis to clients.

1261
00:51:21,750 --> 00:51:23,850
Only proper advice depends on a complete analysis

1262
00:51:23,850 --> 00:51:25,270
of all facts and circumstances.

1263
00:51:25,270 --> 00:51:27,370
The information given on this program is general

1264
00:51:27,370 --> 00:51:29,410
financial comments and cannot be relied upon as

1265
00:51:29,410 --> 00:51:31,050
pertaining to your specific situation.

1266
00:51:31,190 --> 00:51:33,170
Wealth Enhancement Group cannot guarantee that using the

1267
00:51:33,170 --> 00:51:35,170
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1268
00:51:35,170 --> 00:51:36,290
ensure freedom from loss.

1269
00:51:36,490 --> 00:51:38,650
Listeners should consult their own financial advisors or

1270
00:51:38,650 --> 00:51:40,750
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1271
00:51:40,750 --> 00:51:41,510
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